The UK labour force participation rate: business cycle and trend influences
In this paper the extent to which recent patterns in UK labour force participation have been influenced by trend and business cycle factors is investigated. A modelling strategy is proposed that pools the available micro and aggregate-level data, to produce a mutually consistent model of the trend and cyclical components of participation. A significant procyclical pattern is established, but some distinct trend influences on the participation rate are also identified. The approach allows for the construction of forecasts, which would be a useful input into the sort of macroeconometric models used by policymakers. The model outperforms some conventional macroeconometric forecasts in out-of-sample forecast tests.
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| Date of creation: | Sep 2004 |
| Handle: | RePEc:boe:boeewp:228 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030 Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196 Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ Email: More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998.
"A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
- M. Keane & R. Moffitt, "undated". "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1080-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- M. Keane & R. Mofitt, 1995. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," Working Papers 95-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Michael P. Keane & Robert A. Moffitt, 1995. "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Working Papers 557, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Briscoe, G. & Wilson, R., 1992. "Forecasting economic activity rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-217, October.
- Brian Bell & James Smith, 2002. "On gross worker flows in the United Kingdom: evidence from the Labour Force Survey," Bank of England working papers 160, Bank of England.
- Chinhui Juhn & Kevin Murphy & Robert Topel, 2002. "Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 79-136.
- Brian Bell & James Smith, 2004. "Health, disability insurance and labour force participation," Bank of England working papers 218, Bank of England.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
- Blundell, Richard & Meghir, Costas & Symons, Elizabeth & Walker, Ian, 1988. "Labour supply specification and the evaluation of tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 23-52, June.
- Joanne Cutler & Kenny Turnbull, 2001. "A Disaggregated Approach to Modelling UK Labour Force Participation," Discussion Papers 04, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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