Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States: use flow rates, mind the trend
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More about this item
Keywords
unemployment forecasting; natural rate; unemployment flows; labor market search;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FOR-2015-03-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-LAB-2015-03-22 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2015-03-22 (Macroeconomics)
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