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Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs

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  • Barnichon, Regis
  • Garda, Paula

Abstract

This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnichon, Regis & Garda, Paula, 2016. "Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 165-183.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:165-183
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.10.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Yvonne Adema & Kees Folmer & Gerrit Hugo Heuvelen & Sonny Kuijpers & Rob Luginbuhl & Bas Scheer, 2020. "Unemployment Forecasts: Room for Improvement?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 403-417, September.
    2. Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2021. "A General Methodology to Measure Labour Market Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 14254, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Das, Tirthatanmoy & Polachek, Solomon W., 2017. "Estimating labor force joiners and leavers using a heterogeneity augmented two-tier stochastic frontier," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 156-172.
    4. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    5. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2016. "Unemployment dynamics and the Beveridge curve in Greece," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, December.
    6. Ilias Georgakopoulos, 2019. "Income and wealth inequality in Malta: evidence from micro data," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    7. Reuben Ellul, 2018. "Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    8. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hernández, Catalina Martínez, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Worker flows; Stock-flow model;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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