IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlt/wpaper/0318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach

Author

Listed:
  • Reuben Ellul

    () (Central Bank of Malta)

Abstract

This study extends the flow approach to forecasting unemployment, as carried out by Barnichon and Nekarda (2013) and Barnichon and Garda (2016), to the Maltese labour market using a wider number of estimating techniques. The flow approach results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy over an autoregressive (AR) process. Particular improvements to forecasting accuracy are returned over shorter time horizons. When including flows, forecast improvements over both an AR process and non-flow forecasts are found when applying VECM methods. Bayesian and OLS VARs also show strong improvements over an AR, with or without the inclusion of flows. For Maltese data, the use of flows computed using aggregate data in these two latter methodologies does not bring about a significant improvement over the forecasts which exclude them.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuben Ellul, 2018. "Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbankmalta.org/file.aspx?f=61815
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
    2. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
    3. Hobijn, Bart & Sahin, Aysegül, 2009. "Job-finding and separation rates in the OECD," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 107-111, September.
    4. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    5. Darby, Michael R & Haltiwanger, John C & Plant, Mark W, 1985. "Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 614-637, September.
    6. Smith, Jennifer & Elsby, Michael, 2010. "A Great Recession in the UK Labour Market : A Transatlantic Perspective," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 945, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The evolution of the Maltese economy since independence," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2015, Central Bank of Malta.
    8. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
    9. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2012. "Exogenous versus Endogenous Separation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 68-93, October.
    10. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:801-816 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:pra:mprapa:46125 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    13. Skalin, Joakim & Ter svirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 202-241, April.
    14. Grech, Aaron George & Grech, Owen & Micallef, Brian & Rapa, Noel & Gatt, William, 2013. "A Structural Macro-Econometric Model of the Maltese Economy," MPRA Paper 46128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:mlt:ebooks:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michael W.L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith, 2010. "The Great Recession In The Uk Labour Market: A Transatlantic Perspective," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages 26-37, October.
    17. Barnichon, Regis & Garda, Paula, 2016. "Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 165-183.
    18. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2012. "Exogenous vs. endogenous separation," Working Papers 12-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emmanuel Cachia). General contact details of provider: https://www.centralbankmalta.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.