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Threshold effects in Okun's Law: a panel data analysis

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  • Julien Fouquau

    () (ESC Rouen and LEO)

Abstract

Our approach involves the use of switching regime models, to take account of the structural asymmetry and time instability of Okun's coefficient. More precisely, we apply the non-dynamic panel transition regression model introduced by Hansen (1999) to a panel of 20 OECD countries over the last three decades. With all specifications applied, the tests lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of a linear relationship between cyclical output and cyclical unemployment. The asymmetry implies the existence of four regimes. For lower or higher values of cyclical unemployment, it follows that there is a relatively strong negative correlation between unemployment rate and output. However, when unemployment stands at intermediate levels, this relationship tends to weaken.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Fouquau, 2008. "Threshold effects in Okun's Law: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(33), pages 1-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08e20011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Network effects of the productivity of infrastructure in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3808, The World Bank.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 265-312.
    3. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 331-356.
    4. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
    5. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    6. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 625-637.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Canry & Julien Fouquau & Sébastien Lechevalier, 2011. "Sectoral Price Dynamics in Japan: A Threshold Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, pages 1322-1335.
    2. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, pages 216-226.
    4. Fouquau, Julien & Spieser, Philippe K., 2015. "Statistical evidence about LIBOR manipulation: A “Sherlock Holmes” investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 632-643.
    5. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    6. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Threshold Panel Regression Models;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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