IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/polgne/356448.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Czy w Polsce występuje efekt histerezy bezrobocia?

Author

Listed:
  • Arendt, Łukasz

Abstract

The study sets out to determine if it is possible to speak of an “unemployment hysteresis” effect in Poland. The paper uses two research methods: a descriptive analysis of structural factors that maybe responsible for changes in the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in Poland; and the Gordon method (1989), on the basis of which the author checks the hypothesis about the existence of unemployment hysteresis in Poland. The analysis showed that structural changes were unlikely to contribute to an increase in NAIRU. On the basis of the Gordon model the author demonstrated that there was no reason to reject the hypothesis about the occurrence of “full unemployment hysteresis” in Poland. Even though the results obtained by the author do not clearly confirm that Polish unemployment is indeed characterized by hysteresis, it seems that this lag effect may explain why Poland still suffers from high unemployment, the author notes. The hysteresis effect is primarily due to the outflow of labor and an insufficient level of human capital in the Polish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arendt, Łukasz, 2006. "Czy w Polsce występuje efekt histerezy bezrobocia?," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2006(11-12), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356448
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356448/files/Arendt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.356448?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Cobham & Steve Williams, 1998. "Hysteresis, the Phillips curve and the costs of monetary union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 477-480.
    2. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    3. Bruno Amable & Jérôme Henry & Frédéric Lordon & Richard Topol, 1993. "Unit Root in the Wage‐Price Spiral Is Not Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(1/2), pages 1-1, January.
    4. Ian M. McDonald, 2002. "Equilibrium unemployment: Theory and measurement in Australia using the Phillips curve," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 451-470, December.
    5. repec:bla:econom:v:53:y:1986:i:210(s):p:s89-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sneessens, H. & Dreze, J., 1985. "A discussion of Belgian unemployment, combining traditional concepts and disequilibrium econometrics," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1985040, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Kwiatkowski, Eugeniusz, 2004. "Integracja z Unią Europejską a rynek pracy w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2004(4), April.
    8. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
    9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    10. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
    11. Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "Hysteresis in History: Was There Ever a Phillips Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 220-225, May.
    12. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Blanchard, Olivier, 2005. "Ekonomiczna przyszłość Europy," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2005(11-12), December.
    14. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December.
    15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 182-187, May.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-246, May.
    17. Paul R. Krugman, 1994. "Past and prospective causes of high unemployment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 49-98.
    18. S. Lael Brainard & David M. Cutler, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 219-243.
    19. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "The Measurement of Persistence and Hysteresis in Aggregate Unemployment," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tito Boeri, 2007. "Transition with Labor Supply," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Erik Berglöf & Gérard Roland (ed.), The Economics of Transition, chapter 5, pages 94-143, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. Roy Cromb, 1993. "A Survey of Recent Econometric Work on the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 27-51, January.
    22. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
    23. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    24. Balakrishnan, Ravi & Michelacci, Claudio, 2001. "Unemployment dynamics across OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 135-165, January.
    25. Roy Cromb, 1993. "A Survey of Recent Econometric Work on the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(1/2), pages 1-1, January.
    26. Bruno Amable & Jérôme Henry & Frédéric Lordon & Richard Topol, 1993. "Unit Root in the Wage-Price Spiral Is Not Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 123-135, January.
    27. Kåre Johansen, "undated". "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian Counties," Working Paper Series 0602, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 20 Aug 2002.
    28. Richard Jackman, 1998. "European Unemployment: Why is it so High and What Should be Done About it?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    29. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1988. "Long-term Unemployment and Macroeconomic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 38-43, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Łukasz Arendt, 2006. "Czy w Polsce występuje efekt histerezy bezrobocia?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 25-46.
    2. Miguel A. León‐Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, August.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    4. Diego Romero‐Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2009. "The Unemployment Paradigms Revisited: A Comparative Analysis Of U.S. State And European Unemployment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 321-334, July.
    5. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "The Measurement of Persistence and Hysteresis in Aggregate Unemployment," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
    7. Jekaterina Dmitrijeva & Mihails Hazans, 2007. "A Stock–Flow Matching Approach to Evaluation of Public Training Programme in a High Unemployment Environment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(3), pages 503-540, September.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    9. Fiona Duffy & Patrick Paul Walsh, 2000. "Individual Pay and Outside Options: Evidence from the Polish Labour Force Survey," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 364, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Maciej Bukowski & Grzegorz Koloch & Piotr Lewandowski, 2013. "Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labour markets’ performance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 553-581, July.
    11. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    12. Karoly Fazekas & Jeno Koltay (ed.), 2002. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2002," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2002, December.
    13. Łukasz Arendt, 2005. "Próba oszacowania NAIRU dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 1-23.
    14. Boeri, Tito & Macis, Mario, 2008. "Do Unemployment Benefits Promote or Hinder Structural Change?," IZA Discussion Papers 3371, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "Global Shocks and Unemployment Adjustment," Economics wp24_smith, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in Central and Eastern Europe," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/6, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    17. Bassi, Federico & Bauermann, Tom & Lang, Dany & Setterfield, Mark, 2022. "Is capacity utilization variable in the long run? An agent-based sectoral approach to modeling hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 196-212.
    18. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies," Working Papers 2011005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    19. Jekaterina Dmitrijeva, 2008. "Matching and Labour Market Efficiency across Space and through EU accession: Evidence from Latvia, Estonia and Slovenia," Documents de recherche 08-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    20. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordonez, 2011. "Unemployment and common smooth transition trends in Central and Eastern European Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(2), pages 39-52, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/irsghpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.