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Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data

Author

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  • Gustavsson, Magnus

    () (Department of Economics, Uppsala University)

  • Österholm, Pär

    () (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned be-cause of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in jobless-ness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Papers 120, National Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Labour Force Participation of Women: Empirical Evidence on The Role of Policy and Other Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(2), pages 51-108.
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    4. Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    2. repec:spr:soinre:v:134:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1437-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spd:journl:v:67:y:2017:i:4:p:45-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    5. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    6. Brantley Liddle, 2013. "The Energy, Economic Growth, Urbanization Nexus Across Development: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Estimates Robust to Cross-Sectional Dependence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. De-Chih Liu, 2014. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates in US: Evidence from Regional Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 447-455, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit-root test;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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