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Tests for Stationarity in Series with Endogenously Determined Structural Change

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  • David I. Harvey
  • Terence C. Mills

Abstract

We consider tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against a unit root alternative, when the series is subject to structural change at an unknown point in time. Three extant tests are reviewed which allow for an endogenously determined instantaneous structural break, and a related fourth procedure is introduced. We further propose tests which permit the structural change to be gradual rather than instantaneous, allowing the null hypothesis to be stationarity about a smooth transition in linear trend. The size and power properties of the tests are investigated, and the tests are applied to four economic time series. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2004. "Tests for Stationarity in Series with Endogenously Determined Structural Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 863-894, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:5:p:863-894
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    Cited by:

    1. Costantini, Mauro & Sen, Amit, 2016. "A simple testing procedure for unit root and model specification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 37-54.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. María Presno & Manuel Landajo, 2010. "Computation of limiting distributions in stationarity testing with a generic trend," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 165-183, March.
    6. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2010. "Stationarity testing under nonlinear models. Some asymptotic results," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 392-405, September.
    7. repec:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9586-z is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Antonio E. Noriega & Cid Alonso Rodríguez-Pérez, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.

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