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Effects of ECB balance sheet policy announcements on inflation expectations

  • Richhild Moessner
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    We investigate whether ECB balance sheet policy announcements in the wake of the global financial crisis have affected the ECB.s monetary policy credibility as measured by long-term inflation expectations, by looking at their effects on euro area inflation swap rates of maturities up to 10 years. We consider asset purchase programmes and long-term refinancing operations with maturities above 6 months. We find that these announcements only led to a slight increase in long-term inflation expectations. We therefore find no strong evidence to suggest that ECB balance sheet policy announcements have led to much higher long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that the monetary policy credibility of the ECB has not been harmed by these policies.

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    File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20Paper%20416_tcm47-305006.pdf
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    Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 416.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:416
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    1. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2012. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," Working Papers 2012-36, CEPII research center.
    2. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Bernhard Winkler, 2012. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 765-803, WINTER.
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    7. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The effects of large-scale asset purchases on TIPS inflation expectations," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    11. Gabriele Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Did the crisis affect inflation expectations?," DNB Working Papers 222, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    13. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 17154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Spring), pages 13-25.
    15. Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Jan Willem van den End & Mostafa Tabbae & Jon Frost & Jakob de Haan, 2013. "Unconventional monetary policy of the ECB during the financial crisis: An assessment and new evidence," DNB Working Papers 381, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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