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Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico

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We estimate a small-scale macro model for the Mexican economy under the New Keynesian (NK) framework and alternative interest rate rules for Mexico. With these results we evaluate the performance of the Bank of Mexico against a set of optimality principles derived in the NK literature. Our system estimation results show that the Bank of Mexico holds a preference for stabilizing not only inflation around target, but also acts to achieve an output gap close to zero. Furthermore, we find that the central bank responds non-linearly to real exchange rate depreciations. We also find that the central bank has actively attempted to neutralize demand and supply shocks through monetary policy that is consistent with the Taylor principle.

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Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): (November)
Pages: 259-286

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:15:y:2012:n:2:p:259-286
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  1. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, 05.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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  4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
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  11. Gabriel Rodriguez, 2006. "Stability of Central Bank Preferences, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Efficiency of the Monetary Policy. Empirical Evidence for Canada," Working Papers 0603E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  12. Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 219-239, November.
  13. Alejandro Villagómez & Bernardo Roth Rivero, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006," Working papers DTE 387, CIDE, División de Economía.
  14. Moons, Cindy & Garretsen, Harry & van Aarle, Bas & Fornero, Jorge, 2007. "Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 879-902.
  15. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
  16. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  17. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
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