IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emc/wpaper/dte387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Villagómez

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

  • Bernardo Roth Rivero

Abstract

This paper uses structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) to characterize the dynamic impact of fiscal policy on national saving. SVAR´s have extensively been used to characterize the impact of monetary policy on the economy but have not been applied as much to analyzing fiscal policy. This paper focuses on the impact of fiscal policy on national saving and the data used is adjusted for inflation and cyclical effects, rather than using traditional estimations by official entities. Our empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy has an important economic impact on national saving, any impact on private saving and a negative but non-significant effect on the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Villagómez & Bernardo Roth Rivero, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006," Working Papers DTE 387, CIDE, División de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/RePEc/emc/pdf/DTE/DTE387.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
    4. Gyan Pradhan & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2001. "The impact of budget deficits on national saving in the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1745-1750.
    5. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    8. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
    9. Gil-Diaz, Francisco & Carstens, Agustin, 1996. "One Year of Solitude: Some Pilgrim Tales about Mexico's 1994-1995 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 164-169, May.
    10. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    11. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Debt Relief and Economic Growth in Mexico," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 5(3), pages 437-455, September.
    12. Eggerstedt, Harald & Hall, Rebecca Brideau & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Measuring capital flight: A case study of Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-232, February.
    13. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-415, August.
    14. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
    15. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-388, August.
    16. Nicolau, João, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks— The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-118, February.
    17. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July.
    18. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    19. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    20. Khalid, Ahmed M., 1996. "Ricardian equivalence: Empirical evidence from developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 413-432, December.
    21. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    22. Oks, Daniel F., 1992. "Stabilization and growth recovery in Mexico : lessons and dilemmas," Policy Research Working Paper Series 833, The World Bank.
    23. repec:fth:harver:1530 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    2. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2015. "Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean: Performance and Policies," IMF Working Papers 2015/108, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    4. Alejandro Villagómez & Juan Ignacio Hernández, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy: An Application to Mexico," Working Papers DTE 454, CIDE, División de Economía.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    2. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
    3. Reitschuler, Gerhard, 2008. "Assessing Ricardian equivalence for the New Member States: Does debt-neutrality matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 119-128, June.
    4. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2018. "Saving in the world," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 257-270.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2022. "Ricardian equivalence, foreign debt and sovereign default risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 21-49.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2004:i:16:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo.
    8. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying steady‐state growth and inflation in the South African economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 279-300, September.
    9. Jose Tavares & Rossen Valkanov, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    10. Abdur Chowdhury, 2001. "The Impact of Financial Reform on Private Savings in Bangladesh," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Ken Chamuva Shawa, 2016. "Drivers Of Private Saving In Sub-Saharan African Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 77-110, June.
    12. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 159-173, June.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    16. Griet Malengier & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2005. "Examining Ricardian Equivalence by estimating and bootstrapping a nonlinear dynamic panel model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 61, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. António Afonso, 2008. "Euler testing Ricardo and Barro in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
    18. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    19. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Pang-Long Tsai, 2003. "Determinants of Household Saving in Taiwan: Growth, Demography and Public Policy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 65-88.
    20. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Oriol Roca‐Sagalés, 2011. "Long‐term effects of fiscal policies in Portugal," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 114-127, January.
    21. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    22. Andrea Butelmann P & Francisco Gallego, 2000. "Household Saving in Chile: Microeconomic Evidence," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(1), pages 5-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; National Saving; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mateo Hoyos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cideemx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.