IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecnote/v37y2008i3p219-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

This paper conjoins the disparate empirical literatures on exchange rate models and monetary policy models, with special reference to the importance of output, inflation gaps and exchange rate targets. It focuses in on the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the differential results arising from using alternative measures of the output gap for the US and for the Euro area. A comparison of 'in-sample' prediction against alternative models of exchange rates is also conducted. In addition to predictive power, I also assess the various models' plausibility as economic explanations for exchange rate movements, based on the conformity of coefficient estimates with priors. Taylor rule fundamentals appear to do as well, or better, than other models at the 1-year horizon. Copyright 2008 The Author Journal compilation 2008 Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 219-239, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:37:y:2008:i:3:p:219-239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecno&volume=37&issue=3&year=2008&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2014. "The structural behavior of China–US trade flows," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2016. "China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 43-67, February.
    5. Rodolfo Cermeño & Julio Mamani-Palacios, 2013. "Regímenes Monetarios y Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real: El Caso Peruano, 1995–2012," Working papers DTE 565, CIDE, División de Economía.
    6. Anwar Khayat, 2015. "Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates," AMSE Working Papers 1538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Sep 2015.
    7. Anwar Khayat, 2015. "Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates," Working Papers halshs-01203609, HAL.
    8. Alejandro Villagómez & Juan Ignacio Hernández, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy: An Application to Mexico," Working papers DTE 454, CIDE, División de Economía.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:37:y:2008:i:3:p:219-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.