Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates
This paper conjoins the disparate empirical literatures on exchange rate models and monetary policy models, with special reference to the importance of output, inflation gaps and exchange rate targets. It focuses in on the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the differential results arising from using alternative measures of the output gap for the US and for the Euro area. A comparison of 'in-sample' prediction against alternative models of exchange rates is also conducted. In addition to predictive power, I also assess the various models' plausibility as economic explanations for exchange rate movements, based on the conformity of coefficient estimates with priors. Taylor rule fundamentals appear to do as well, or better, than other models at the 1-year horizon. Copyright 2008 The Author Journal compilation 2008 Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0391-5026|