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Regímenes Monetarios y Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real: El Caso Peruano, 1995–2012

Listed author(s):
  • Rodolfo Cermeño

    ()

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

  • Julio Mamani-Palacios

This paper evaluates empirically the volatility of real exchange rate in Peru under two regimes of monetary policy: the Monetary Targeting Regime, MTR, (1995:11–2001:12) and the Inflation Targeting Regime, ITR, (2002:01–2012:12). We estimate a small-scale macroeconomic model along the lines of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, under a New-Keynesian approach. We find strong evidence that volatility of real exchange rate differs substantially across regimes which is consistent with the theoretical results of Gali y Monacelli (2005) and also with the empirical results of Lastrapes (1989). Specifically, we find that the transition from the MTR to ITR has been accompanied by a substantial reduction of real Exchange rate volatility.

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File URL: http://cide.edu/repec/economia/pdf/DTE565.pdf
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Paper provided by CIDE, División de Economía in its series Working papers with number DTE 565.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte565
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  2. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  3. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  4. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
  9. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
  10. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
  11. Kevin B. Grier & Fausto Hernández-Trillo, 2004. "The real exchange rate process and its real effects: The cases of Mexico and the USA," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 1-25, May.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  13. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
  14. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Armas, Adrián & Grippa, Francisco & Quispe, Zenón & Valdivia, Luis, 2001. "De metas monetarias a metas de inflación en una economía con dolarización parcial: El caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 7.
  17. Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1127-1140, August.
  18. Salas, Jorge, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of a Simple Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," Working Papers 2010-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  20. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  21. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
  22. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
  23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  24. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  25. Moons, Cindy & Garretsen, Harry & van Aarle, Bas & Fornero, Jorge, 2007. "Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 879-902.
  26. Levent KORAP, 2009. "On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: System-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 89-110.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  29. Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 219-239, November.
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