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The Real Exchange Rate Process and Its Real Effects: The Cases of Mexico and the USA

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  • Kevin B. Grier
  • Fausto Hernández-Trillo

Abstract

Exchange rate management is a salient macroeconomic issue, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we study political economy factors that may affect the real exchange rate (RER) process and the real economic effects of the RER. We review recent literature on the effects of elections on the exchange rate, and adapt Ball's (1992) model to show that uncertainty about the future course of policy may make more appreciated RER's less predictable. We also review the literature on the real effect of RER appreciations and of RER uncertainty. We then construct a simultaneous GARCH-M model of the joint determination of the RER and output capable of testing our hypotheses simultaneously in a single model. We estimate the model using data first from Mexico, a developing country, and the US. In Mexico we find that elections significantly affect the evolution of the RER, that more appreciated RERs are less predictable, that RER depreciations lower output growth and that RER uncertainty lowers output growth, even when controlling for its well-studied effect on trade. By contrast, none of these effects are found in the US data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin B. Grier & Fausto Hernández-Trillo, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate Process and Its Real Effects: The Cases of Mexico and the USA," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2004.12040601
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rodolfo Cermeño & Bjamin S. Jensen & Huver Rivera, 2010. "Trade Flows and Volatility of Their Fundamentals: Some Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers DTE 496, CIDE, División de Economía.
    3. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Pablo Garofalo, 2013. "Electoral cycles in international reserves: Evidence from Latin America and the OECD," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 526, Universidad del CEMA.
    4. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
    5. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2010. "Electoral Cycles Through Lobbying," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 446-470, November.
    6. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    7. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Eugenia Sanin, 2015. "Are Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes more Volatile? Panel GARCH Evidence for the G7 and Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 297-308, May.
    8. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
    9. Rodolfo Cermeño & Julio Mamani-Palacios, 2013. "Regímenes Monetarios y Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real: El Caso Peruano, 1995-2012," Working Papers DTE 565, CIDE, División de Economía.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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