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Real exchange rate cycles around elections

Author

Listed:
  • Piero Ghezzi
  • Ernesto Stein
  • Jorge M. Streb

Abstract

We develop the implications of political budget cycles for real exchange rates in a two-sector small open economy with a cash-in-advance constraint. Policy makers are office motivated politicians. Voters have incomplete information on the competence and the opportunism of incumbents. Devaluation acts like a tax, and is politically costly because it can signal the government is incompetent. This provides incumbents an incentive to postpone a devaluation, and can lead to an overvalued exchange rate before elections. We compare the implied cycle of appreciated/depreciated exchange rates to empirical evidence around elections from Latin America.

Suggested Citation

  • Piero Ghezzi & Ernesto Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 2000. "Real exchange rate cycles around elections," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 174, Universidad del CEMA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin B. Grier & Fausto Hernández-Trillo, 2004. "The real exchange rate process and its real effects: The cases of Mexico and the USA," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 1-25, May.
    2. Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 272, OECD Publishing.
    3. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2005. "Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 151-176, July.
    4. Joel Sebastián Schneider, 2004. "El rol de los gobernadores opositores en las elecciones presidenciales," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 281, Universidad del CEMA.
    5. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2008. "Political Business Cycles through Lobbying," THEMA Working Papers 2008-18, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2010. "Electoral Cycles Through Lobbying," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 446-470, November.
    7. Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2007. "The political economy of exchange rate in Brazil," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 656, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    8. Vladimir Klyuev, 2003. "The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/133, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ari Aisen, 2004. "Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; Is There Space for Political Opportunism?," IMF Working Papers 04/94, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    11. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special interests and political business cycles," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    12. Sainan Huang & Cristina Terra, 2016. "Exchange Rate Populism," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 105-132, March.
    13. Diego Aboal & Fernando Lorenzo & Andrés Rius, 2000. "Is the exchange rate politically manipulated around elections? The evidence from Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1800, Department of Economics - dECON.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate overvaluation; seigniorage; political budget cycle; asymmetric information.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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