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Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come From?

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  • Drazen, Allan
  • Brender, Adi

Abstract

Whereas a political budget cycle was once thought to be a phenomenon of less-developed economies, some recent studies find such a cycle in a large cross-section of both developed and developing countries. We find that this result is driven by the experience of ?new democracies?, where fiscal manipulation may be effective because of lack of experience with electoral politics or lack of information that voters in more established democracies use. The strong budget cycle in those countries accounts for the finding of a budget cycle in larger samples that include these countries. Once these countries are removed from the larger sample, the political budget cycle disappears. Our findings may reconcile two contradictory views of pre-electoral manipulation, one arguing it is a useful instrument to gain voter support and a widespread empirical phenomenon, the other arguing that voters punish rather than reward fiscal manipulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Drazen, Allan & Brender, Adi, 2003. "Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come From?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4049
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    Cited by:

    1. JEdgar Alfredo Nande Vazque & Juan Carlos Martínez, 2016. "Political Budget Cycle: Mexican Town Halls Case," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 6(8), pages 31-42, August.
    2. Çağrı Levent Uslu, 2017. "Seat-vote elasticity and the provincial distribution of government spending in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 49-67, April.
    3. Aleksandra Praščević, 2017. "Political Economy Of Misusing Income Distribution In The Electoral Process – Biased Pluralism Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(214), pages 7-44, June - Se.
    4. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Insper Working Papers wpe_117, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    5. Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1301-1338.
    6. Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Political Budget Cycles Or Voters As Fiscal Conservatives? Evidence From Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3343, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Gustavo Torrens, 2009. "Checks and Balances on Political Budget Cycles: Cross‐Country Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 426-447, August.
    8. Álvaro Díaz, Henry Laverde, John Jairo Gómez, 2011. "Política tributaria y sus efectos sobre la distribución del ingreso en Colombia durante el siglo XX," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, December.
    9. Pablo Mejía Reyes & Marlen Rocio Reyes Hernández & Paolo Riguzzi, 2020. "Political budget cycles in Latin America, 1982-2014," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 12(1), pages 235-269, June.
    10. Aleksandra Prascevic, 2012. "Institutional Underdevelopments As The Obstacle To The Economic Growth: Rent Seeking Society In Serbia," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 8(2), pages 319-333.
    11. Víctor Acxel Amarillas Urbina & Cesáreo Gámez Garza & Marlen R. Reyes Hernández, 2016. "The Presidential Transition and Economic Activity in Mexico, 1994-2013. La transición presidencial y la actividad económica en México, 1994-2013," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 1(4), pages 61-99.
    12. Kotosz, Balázs, 2006. "Megszorítások és lazítások - a rendszerváltás fiskális politikájának szerkezetéről [Tightening and loosening - on the structure of the fiscal policy of systemic change]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 158-174.
    13. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
    14. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 301-314, October.
    15. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2013. "The Euro Zone Peripheral Countries’ Sovereign Debt Crisis: Also a Case of Non-Mature Democracies?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(3), pages 291-310, May.
    16. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
    17. Vicente Germán-Soto & Cesáreo Gámez Garza, 2017. "El ciclo económico de la productividad y su relación con el ciclo político en México, 1993.1 - 2014.4," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 65-94.
    18. Alejandro Saporiti & Jorge Streb, 2008. "Separation of powers and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 329-345, October.
    19. Miomir Jakšić & Aleksandra Praščević, 2011. "The New Political Macroeconomics in Modern Macroeconomics and Its Appliance to Transition Processes in Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 545-557, December.
    20. JEdgar Alfredo Nande Vazque & Juan Carlos Martínez, 2016. "Political Budget Cycle: Mexican Town Halls Case," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(8), pages 31-42, August.
    21. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    22. Israel Garcia & Bernd Hayo, 2022. "The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202223, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    23. Isadora Sánchez-Torné & Macarena Pérez-Suárez & Juan Carlos Morán-Álvarez, 2020. "Una comparativa de la innovación de Espana y Rusia: ¿políticas bilaterales para la innovación?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 12(1), pages 201-233, June.
    24. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2012. "The Present Sovereign Debt Crisis Of The Euro Zone Peripheral Countries: A Case Of Non-Mature Democracies And Less Developed Economies," FEP Working Papers 458, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    25. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political budget cycle; New democracy; Fiscal manipulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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