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Ciclos políticos del presupuesto bajo reglas fiscales subnacionales

Author

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  • Contreras, Lina María

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

Los Ciclos Políticos del Presupuesto (CPP) se refieren a los aumentos del gasto, recortes de impuestos o incrementos en el déficit que ocurren antes de las elecciones, en un intento por parte de los gobernantes de manipular las variables económicas para lograr ventajas en las votaciones. Un factor que puede afectar la aparición del CPP es la existencia de reglas fiscales. Este trabajo investiga si las reglas fiscales subnacionales han suavizado el ciclo político del presupuesto de los municipios colombianos, durante el periodo comprendido entre 1993 y 2009. A partir de una base de datos con información de 1034 municipios, se estiman modelos de panel dinámico mediante el Método Generalizado de Momentos, revisando distintos renglones del gasto e inversión municipal. La evidencia sugiere que hay CPP en los rubros del presupuesto revisados, aunque los ciclos identificados presentan magnitudes distintas para variables de inversión y de gasto. Destaca que las reglas fiscales subnacionales han logrado suavizar el ciclo presente en ellas, contribuyendo de esta manera a obtener mejores finanzas públicas a nivel territorial.

Suggested Citation

  • Contreras, Lina María, 2024. "Ciclos políticos del presupuesto bajo reglas fiscales subnacionales," Documentos CEDE 21137, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:021137
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo político del presupuesto; finanzas públicas; gobiernos regionales; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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