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Do fiscal rules dampen the political business cycle?

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  • Shanna Rose

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    Abstract

    This paper develops and tests the theory that fiscal rules limit politicians' ability to manipulate the budget for electoral gain. Using panel data from the American states, I find evidence suggesting that stringent balanced budget rules dampen the political business cycle. That is, while spending rises before and falls after elections in states that can carry deficits into the next fiscal year, this pattern does not exist in states with strict “no-carry” rules. Neither binding gubernatorial term limits nor the partisan composition of government appear to significantly affect the magnitude of the political business cycle. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-005-9007-7
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

    Volume (Year): 128 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 407-431

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:128:y:2006:i:3:p:407-431
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    1. Tim Besley, 2002. "Political institutions and policy choices: evidence from the United States," IFS Working Papers W02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Better Balanced Budget Amendment
      by Matt Mitchell in Neighborhood Effects on 2011-08-05 21:27:41
    2. Balanced Budget Rules and Unintended Consequences
      by Matt Mitchell in Neighborhood Effects on 2011-07-21 14:22:27
    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Streb & Gustavo Torrens, 2013. "Making rules credible: divided government and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 703-722, September.
    2. Marek Hanusch & Daniel Magleby, 2014. "Popularity, polarization, and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 457-467, June.
    3. Toke Aidt & Graham Mooney, 2014. "Voting Suffrage and the Political Budget Cycle: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902-1937," CESifo Working Paper Series 4614, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "The Size and Scope of Government in the US States: Does Party Ideology Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4246, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Yilin Hou & Daniel Smith, 2010. "Do state balanced budget requirements matter? Testing two explanatory frameworks," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 57-79, October.
    6. Andersen, Asger Lau & Lassen, David Dreyer & Nielsen, Lasse Holbøll Westh, 2014. "The impact of late budgets on state government borrowing costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 27-35.
    7. Dirk Foremny & Ronny Freier & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Mustafa Yeter, 2015. "Overlapping political budget cycles in the legislative and the executive," Working Papers 2015/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    8. Petrarca, Ilaria, 2014. "No news is costly news: The link between the diffusion of the press and public spending," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 68-85.
    9. Marek Hanusch, 2012. "Coalition incentives for political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 121-136, April.
    10. Toke Aidt & Graham Mooney, 2014. "Voter suffrage and the political budget cycle: evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902-1937," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1401, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Marco Battaglini, 2009. "On the Case for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution," 2009 Meeting Papers 131, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Foremny, Dirk & Freier, Ronny & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2014. "Overlapping political budget cycles in the legislative and the executive," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-099, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. George A. Krause & David E. Lewis & James W. Douglas, 2013. "Politics Can Limit Policy Opportunism in Fiscal Institutions: Evidence from Official General Fund Revenue Forecasts in the American States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 271-295, 03.
    14. Marco Buso & Frederic Marty & Tra Tran Phuong, 2014. "Public Private Partnership from Budget Constraints: Looking for Debt Hiding?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0189, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    15. Jakob Haan & Jeroen Klomp, 2013. "Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-410, December.
    16. Bernardino Benito & Francisco Bastida & Cristina Vicente, 2013. "Municipal elections and cultural expenditure," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 3-32, February.
    17. Daniel Lema & Jorge M. Streb, 2013. "Party alignment and political budget cycles: the Argentine provinces," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 520, Universidad del CEMA.

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