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The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999

  • Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar
  • Terra, Maria Cristina T.

This paper was developed as part of a broader research program on the political economy of exchange rate policies in Latin America and the Caribbean. We are grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from Jeff Frieden, Ernesto Stein, Jorge Streb, Marcelo Neri and seminar participants at Getulio Vargas Foundation, PUC-Rio, IDB workshop on The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and LACEA meeting in Buenos Aires. We thank René Garcia for providing us with a Fortran program for estimating the Markov Switching Model, Ilan Goldfajn for sending us updated estimates of the real exchange rate series of Goldfajn and Valdés (1996), Altamir Lopes and Ricardo Markwald for kindly furnishing data on Brazilian external accounts, and Carla Bernardes, Gabriela Domingues, Juliana Pessoa de Araújo, and, specially, Marcelo Pinheiro for excellent research assistant. Both authors thank CNPq for a research fellowship.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 341.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:341
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  1. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  3. Michael Bruno, 1989. "Israel's Crisis and Economic Reform: A Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 3075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Maria Cristina Terra, 1995. "Openess and inflation: a new assessment," Textos para discussão 339, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
  10. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1999. "Elections and the Timing of Devaluations," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 140, Universidad del CEMA.
  12. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden, 2000. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview," Research Department Publications 3118, .
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