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Debt Crisis and Inflation

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  • Terra, Maria Cristina T.

Abstract

This paper develops and tests a model that predicts a negative link between the degree of openness of an economy and its equilibrium inflation rate. The effect arises in an economy going through a debt crisis, and in which inflation tax constitutes an important source of the government's revenue. The predictions of the analysis are compared to those in Romer (1993), which uses a Barro-Gordon type model to argue that openness puts a check on a government's incentive to engage in unanticipated inflation, because of induced exchange rate depreciation. Romer's tests are reevaluated, and it is shown that the degree of openness is only a significant determinant of inflation among highly indebted countries, during the debt crisis period. The empirical results indicate that the model of openness and inflation' presented here explains the data better than Romer.

Suggested Citation

  • Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Debt Crisis and Inflation," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 17(2), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:17:y:1997:i:2:a:2865
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    File URL: https://periodicos.fgv.br/bre/article/view/2865
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    Cited by:

    1. Adolfo Sachsida & Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça, 2006. "Inflation and Trade Openness Revised: an Analysis Using Panel Data," Discussion Papers 1148, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Sachsida, Adolfo & Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R. A., 2003. "Does greater trade openness reduce inflation? Further evidence using panel data techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 315-319, December.
    3. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-468, May.
    4. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1999. "The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 341, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Research Department Publications 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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