Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies
Political cycles represent a core issue for capital markets in developing and emerging countries. This paper analyses the intricate links between financial markets and emerging democracies and highlights changes in the ways analysts and investors react to political cycles in emerging markets. Financial markets have, in the past, been particularly sensitive to political events. All the major financial crises in Latin America of the past decade and a half took place during an election year. Even in 2006, an unusually calm period in light of the number of presidential elections, markets remained highly sensitivity to elections: the day following Felipe Calderón's narrow victory in July's 2006 Mexican presidential elections, the stock market gained almost 5 per cent in a day, bond prices soared and the peso saw its biggest one-day appreciation in six years.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16|
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Web page: http://www.oecd.org/Dev
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allan Drazen & Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Electoral Manipulation via Expenditure Composition: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944.
- Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005.
"Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections,"
Economics and Politics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
- Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu BussiÃ¨re, 1999.
"Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability,"
IMF Working Papers
99/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
- Reisen, Helmut, 2002.
"Ratings since the Asian Crisis,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Jorge M. Streb, 2001.
"Signaling in Political Cycles. How far are you willing to go?,"
CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo.
193, Universidad del CEMA.
- Jorge Miguel Streb, 2005. "Signaling in Political Budget Cycles: How Far Are You Willing to Go?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(2), pages 229-252, 05.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006.
"Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections,"
NBER Working Papers
12073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," Research Papers 1928, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 5591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections," Working Paper Series 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 1996, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 203-225, November.
- Steven A. Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-575, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2005.
"Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles,"
Economics and Politics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 151-176, 07.
- Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2001. "Elections and exchange rate policy cycles," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 435, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2004. "Elections and Exchange Rate Policy Cycles," International Finance 0402001, EconWPA.
- Marcela Eslava, 2006.
"The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: Survey,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
40058, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Jeffry Frieden & David Leblang & Neven Valev, 2010. "The political economy of exchange rate regimes in transition economies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
- Khemani, Stuti, 2000. "Political cycles in a developing economy - effect of elections in Indian States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2454, The World Bank.
- Jorge Blazquez & Javier Santiso, 2003. "Mexico, Â¿un ex-emergente?," Working Papers 0301, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Rodríguez, Javier & Santiso, Javier, 2008.
"Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets,"
12907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2007. "Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 259, OECD Publishing.
- Block, Steven A., 2003. "Political conditions and currency crises in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 287-309, September.
- repec:tpr:intorg:v:56:y:2002:i:4:p:751-774 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2007. "The Usual Suspects: A Primer on Investment Banks' Recommendations and Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
- repec:idb:brikps:77398 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:272-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.