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Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies

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  • Martínez, Juan
  • Santiso, Javier

Abstract

This article focuses on the interactions between politics and financial markets in emerging economies. More precisely, it examines how Wall Street reacts to major Latin American political events. The case study focuses on the 2002 Brazilian presidential elections. The first section of the article provides a critical review of the available literature. The second section presents an empirical study of Wall Street analysts’ perceptions of the 2002 presidential elections in Brazil, based on reports produced by leading Wall Street investment firms. The final section uses polling and financial data from previous Brazilian elections to place the events of 2002 in comparative historical perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paola L. Montero Ledezma, 2018. "The Role of Politics in Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 18(2), pages 5-21.
    2. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, "undated". "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: The Case of Brazil in 2002," Economic Research Papers 271181, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    3. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2023. "Sovereign debt," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 17, pages 378-405, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Jorge Blazquez & Javier Santiso, 2003. "Mexico, ¿un ex-emergente?," Working Papers 0301, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Mariana G. Davi & Marcelo S. Portugal, 2020. "Politics and finance: a study on the impact of campaign donations on Brazilian firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1057-1105, March.
    6. Roberto Chang, 2010. "Elections, Capital Flows, and Politico-economic Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1759-1777, September.
    7. Steven A. Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "DEMOCRACY???S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-575, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 272, OECD Publishing.
    9. Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa, 2004. "Fatores Políticos E Institucionais: Impactos Sobre Paradas Bruscas De Financiamento Externo," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Anja Linder & Carlos Santiso, 2003. "Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 105-132.
    11. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Jeetendra Dangol, 2008. "Unanticipated Political Events and Stock Returns: An Event Study," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 20, pages 86-110, April.
    13. Javier Santiso, 2007. "Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketeers," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693593, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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