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Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies

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  • Martínez, Juan
  • Santiso, Javier

Abstract

This article focuses on the interactions between politics and financial markets in emerging economies. More precisely, it examines how Wall Street reacts to major Latin American political events. The case study focuses on the 2002 Brazilian presidential elections. The first section of the article provides a critical review of the available literature. The second section presents an empirical study of Wall Street analysts’ perceptions of the 2002 presidential elections in Brazil, based on reports produced by leading Wall Street investment firms. The final section uses polling and financial data from previous Brazilian elections to place the events of 2002 in comparative historical perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12909
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12909/1/MPRA_paper_12909.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa, 2004. "Fatores Políticos E Institucionais: Impactos Sobre Paradas Bruscas De Financiamento Externo," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Anja Linder & Carlos Santiso, 2003. "Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 105-132.
    4. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Jorge Blazquez & Javier Santiso, 2003. "Mexico, ¿un ex-emergente?," Working Papers 0301, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Jeetendra Dangol, 2008. "Unanticipated Political Events and Stock Returns: An Event Study," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 20, pages 86-110, April.
    7. Roberto Chang, 2010. "Elections, Capital Flows, and Politico-economic Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1759-1777, September.
    8. Steven A. Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "DEMOCRACY???S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-575, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Javier Santiso, 2007. "Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketeers," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693593, January.
    10. Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 272, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; Financial markets; International political economy; Latin America;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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