A New Approach for Determining Exchange-Rate Level Preferences
In research on the political economy of exchange rates, a good understanding of who will endorse and who will oppose certain exchange-rate policies is central to understanding how actual exchange-rate policies are made and how the global exchange-rate system changes over time. Since existing classifications of exchange-rate level preferences have several shortcomings, this article proposes a new and more nuanced strategy for identifying preferences on exchange-rate valuation. This approach takes into account the complex interrelationship between exchange-rate and monetary policy, and the effects of these policies on balance sheets. In addition, the approach accounts for the dynamics of preference formation and change. Comparative case studies of currency crises in Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan show that considering actors' vulnerabilities to exchange-rate and interest-rate changes enhances understanding of their exchange-rate level preferences. The case studies also indicate that societal preferences affect policy outcomes. Exchange-rate stability was maintained in countries where private actors' vulnerabilities to depreciation were high. However, when pressure intensified, exchange rates were subsequently depreciated in countries where vulnerabilities to a monetary tightening exceeded the potential costs of depreciation.
Volume (Year): 62 (2008)
Issue (Month): 03 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK|
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_INO
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baig, Taimur & Goldfajn, Ilan, 2002.
"Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises; The Case of Asia," IMF Working Papers 98/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussão 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Working Papers 01.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 203-225, November.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- David M. Woodruff, 2005. "Boom, Gloom, Doom: Balance Sheets, Monetary Fragmentation, and the Politics of Financial Crisis in Argentina and Russia," Politics & Society, , vol. 33(1), pages 3-45, March.
- Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms," NBER Working Papers 9053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frieden, Jeffry A., 2002. "Real Sources of European Currency Policy: Sectoral Interests and European Monetary Integration," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 831-860, September.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," Research Department Publications 4411, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado about Nothing?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1555, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3653, The World Bank.
- Norbert Fiess & Rashmi Shankar, 2005. "Regime-Switching in Exchange Rate Policy and Balance Sheet Effects," Working Papers 2005_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
- Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
- Ignacio Lobato & Sangeeta Pratap & Alejandro Somuano, 2004. "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility in Mexico: A Firm Level Analysis," Working Papers 0405, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- repec:idb:brikps:77398 is not listed on IDEAS
- Prema-chandra Athukorala & Peter G. Warr, 2002. "Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 33-57, January.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Why the Middle is Unstable: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 709-732, May.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- repec:cto:journl:v:20:y:2000:i:2:p:159-178 is not listed on IDEAS
- Frieden, Jeffry A., 1991. "Invested interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 425-451, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)