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Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects

  • Fiess, Norbert
  • Shankar, Rashmi

The authors apply regime-switching methods to a monetarist model of exchange rates and identify well-defined intervention policy cycles. The policy response indices include a standard exchange market pressure-based index and a model-based volatility ratio that is endogenized relative to Japan, assumed to be a"benchmark"floater. The authors find strong evidence that balance sheet effects, proxied by the stock ratio of external liabilities to assets, and economic performance, as measured by GDP and stock market indices, determine the cost of the regime shift. They use a panel of quarterly data from 1985 to 2004 for a sample of 15 countries, mostly in East Asia and Latin America.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3653.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3653
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Aizenman, Joshua, 1982. "Aspects of the optimal management of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3-4), pages 231-256, November.
  5. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Kraay, Aart & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis & Ventura, Jaume, 2004. "Country Portfolios," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3320, The World Bank.
  8. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
  10. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  13. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Inversión de las corrientes de capital, tipo de cambio y dolarización
    [Capital Flow Reversals, the Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization]
    ," MPRA Paper 13692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
  16. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  18. Andres Velasco & Roberto Chang, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 10827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bazdresch, Santiago & Werner, Alejandro, 2005. "Regime switching models for the Mexican peso," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 185-201, January.
  20. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  21. repec:rus:hseeco:124089 is not listed on IDEAS
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