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Fatores Políticos E Institucionais: Impactos Sobre Paradas Bruscas De Financiamento Externo

  • Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa
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    The literature of international economy recognizes the importance of political factors over the national economy's performance and over the likelihood of external crises. Some recent studies analyze the impact of these factors over the financial crises and speculative attacks, but little has been told so far about the impacts over the likelihood of a sudden stop. The first objective of this paper is to complement this lack in the literature. The second objective is to extend the political economy's horizon analyzing the political-ideological issue jointly with the national institutions that regulate the Executive's power and succession. So, this paper discusses how political and institutional factors affect the likelihood of a sudden stop of external financing. After analyzing a wide panel database using the LOGIT method, we conclude that political variables are relevant to determine the likelihood of a sudden stop only if variables that measure the extent of executive power and national democracy are included. Variables that regulate the transitional process and the extent of Executive's power showed high significant statistical and absolute impacts on the probability of an event.

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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2004/artigos/A04A070.pdf
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    Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 070.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:070
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    1. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy, . "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    6. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Block, Steven A., 2003. "Political conditions and currency crises in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 287-309, September.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, June.
    9. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2003. "Sudden Stops and Exchange Rate Strategies in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4327, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Swati R. Ghosh & Atish R. Ghosh, 2003. "Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 7.
    11. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-30, October.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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