IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/214-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ratings Since the Asian Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Reisen

Abstract

The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers — and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasised in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ... L’importance accrue des agences de notation pour les marchés financiers des pays émergents a attiré l’attention d’un groupe élargi d’observateurs — et suscité des critiques. Ce document cherche à déterminer si l’influence des notations pour les capitaux des pays en développement a évolué depuis la crise asiatique et si les agences ont ou non modifié leurs critères de notation. Ce texte propose aussi une analyse des dernières propositions du Comité de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire, déterminantes pour apprécier le rôle futur des notations du risque pays dans le financement des pays en développement par la dette extérieure. Alors que les critères classiques de notation ont perdu de leur pouvoir explicatif depuis la crise asiatique, les dernières notations de l’Argentine et de la Turquie semblent encore suivre l’évolution des marchés, dans la mesure où les variables du dynamisme du secteur financier et les effets endogènes des flux de capitaux sur les variables macro-économiques ...

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Reisen, 2003. "Ratings Since the Asian Crisis," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 214, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:214-en
    DOI: 10.1787/746001826505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/746001826505
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/746001826505?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    2. Pascual O’Dogherty & Moisés J Schwartz, 2001. "Prudential regulation of foreign exchange: the Mexican experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 285-300, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    6. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "The banking industry in the emerging market economies: competition, consolidation and systemic stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 04.
    8. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    9. Helmut Reisen, 1999. "After the Great Asian Slump: Towards a Coherent Approach to Global Capital Flows," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 16, OECD Publishing.
    10. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    11. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    12. Morris Goldstein (ed.), 1999. "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 50, October.
    13. Martin Grandes, 2001. "External Solvency, Dollarisation and Investment Grade: Towards a Virtuous Circle?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 177, OECD Publishing.
    14. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    15. Antonio Ahumada & Jorge Marshall, 2001. "The banking industry in Chile: competition, consolidation and systemic stability," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The banking industry in the emerging market economies: competition, consolidation and systemic stability, volume 4, pages 45-53, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Clarke, George & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Sanchez, Susana M., 2001. "Foreign bank entry - experience, implications for developing countries, and agenda for further research," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2698, The World Bank.
    18. World Bank, 2001. "Finance for Growth : Policy Choices in a Volatile World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13895, December.
    19. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo & Larraín, Guillermo, 2003. "How optimal are the extremes?: Latin American exchange rate policies during the Asian crisis," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1797.
    2. Hawkins, John N., 2003. "International bank lending: water flowing uphill?," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1787.
    3. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2003. "Financial crisis and national policy issues: an overview," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1785.
    4. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Spratt, Stephen, 2003. "The new Basel capital accord and developing countries: issues, implications and policy proposals," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1794.
    5. Stallings, Barbara & Studart, Rogério, 2003. "Financial regulation and supervision in emerging markets: the experience of Latin America since the Tequila crisis," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1799.
    6. Persaud, Avinash, 2003. "Liquidity black holes: why modern financial regulation in developed countries is making short-term capital flows to developing countries even more volatile," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1786.
    7. -, 2003. "From capital surges to drought: seeking stability for emerging economies," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1783 edited by Eclac.
    8. Budnevich, Carlos, 2003. "Countercyclical fiscal policy: a review of the literature, empirical evidence and some policy proposals," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1798.
    9. FitzGerald, Valpy, 2003. "The instability of the emerging-market assets demand schedule," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1795.
    10. Williamson, John, 2003. "Proposals for curbing the boom-bust cycle in the supply of capital to emerging markets," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1791.
    11. Griffith-Jones, Stephany, 2003. "Capital flows to emerging economies: does the emperor have clothes?," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1784.
    12. Dodd, Randall, 2003. "Derivatives, the shape of international capital flows and the virtues of prudential regulation," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1789.
    13. Lubin, David, 2003. "Bank lending to emerging markets: crossing the border," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1788.
    14. Moguillansky, Graciela, 2003. "Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1793.
    15. Ocampo, José Antonio, 2003. "Capital-account and counter-cyclical prudential regulations in developing countries," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1796.
    16. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    17. Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
    18. Asta Klimaviciene, 2011. "Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Baltic Stock Markets," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 2(1).
    19. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang Nam & Cho, Seong-Yeon & Chiang, Thomas C., 2008. "The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:214-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dcoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.