IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/noj/journl/v29y2003p105-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Anja Linder
  • Carlos Santiso

Abstract

Accurately evaluating country risk and assessing the quality of governance in emerging market economies has become a priority of international corporations, investment banks and multilateral financial institutions. The rating system of the Political Risk Services (PRS) Group, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), constitutes one of the most influential time-series databases of country risk analysis. This study assesses the accuracy and predictive powers of the ICRG model, evaluating its ability to discern trends and highlight structural vulnerabilities, and thus to warn of impending crises. Three major crises are examined: the Brazilian financial crisis of 1999, the Argentine economic meltdown in December 2001 and the Peruvian political crisis of 2000. The study finds mixed results, which have important implications for research and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Linder & Carlos Santiso, 2003. "Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 105-132.
  • Handle: RePEc:noj:journl:v:29:y:2003:p:105-132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nopecjournal.org/NOPEC_2003_a07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay, 2002. "Growth without Governance," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2002), pages 169-230, August.
    2. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel Kaufmann, 2003. "Rethinking Governance: Empirical Lessons Challenge Orthodoxy," Macroeconomics 0308007, EconWPA.
    4. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    2. Sottile, Pedro, 2013. "On the political determinants of sovereign risk: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model for Argentina," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 160-185.
    3. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:noj:journl:v:29:y:2003:p:105-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Halvor Mehlum). General contact details of provider: http://www.nopecjournal.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.