IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/noj/journl/v29y2003p105-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Anja Linder
  • Carlos Santiso

Abstract

Accurately evaluating country risk and assessing the quality of governance in emerging market economies has become a priority of international corporations, investment banks and multilateral financial institutions. The rating system of the Political Risk Services (PRS) Group, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), constitutes one of the most influential time-series databases of country risk analysis. This study assesses the accuracy and predictive powers of the ICRG model, evaluating its ability to discern trends and highlight structural vulnerabilities, and thus to warn of impending crises. Three major crises are examined: the Brazilian financial crisis of 1999, the Argentine economic meltdown in December 2001 and the Peruvian political crisis of 2000. The study finds mixed results, which have important implications for research and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Linder & Carlos Santiso, 2003. "Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 105-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:noj:journl:v:29:y:2003:p:105-132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nopecjournal.org/NOPEC_2003_a07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    2. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay, 2002. "Growth without Governance," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2002), pages 169-230, August.
    3. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Daniel Kaufmann, 2003. "Rethinking Governance: Empirical Lessons Challenge Orthodoxy," Macroeconomics 0308007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    6. Feldstein, Martin, 2002. "Argentina's Fall: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 2959849, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atsu, Francis & Adams, Samuel, 2021. "Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: Does policy uncertainty matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 490-501.
    2. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    3. santi, emanuele & santiso, Carlos & Campos, Indira, 2009. "Assessing Governance, Staff Guidance Note on the Governance Rating of the Bank’s Country Performance Assessment," MPRA Paper 37945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sottile, Pedro, 2013. "On the political determinants of sovereign risk: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model for Argentina," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 160-185.
    5. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    6. Tobin Im & Youngmi Choi, 2018. "Rethinking National Competitiveness: A Critical Assessment of Governmental Capacity Measures," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 515-532, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marchesi, Silvia & Sabani, Laura, 2007. "IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: Theory and empirics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 640-666, November.
    2. Vianna, Andre C. & Mollick, Andre V., 2018. "Institutions: Key variable for economic development in Latin America," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 42-58.
    3. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    4. Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
    5. Marion Payen & Patrick Rondé, 2020. "Culture, Institutions and Economic Growth," Working Papers of BETA 2020-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01019663, HAL.
    7. J. François Outreville, 2013. "The Relationship Between Insurance and Economic Development: 85 Empirical Papers for a Review of the Literature," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 71-122, March.
    8. Minogue, Martin, 2005. "Apples and Oranges: Problems in the Analysis of Comparative Regulatory Governance," Centre on Regulation and Competition (CRC) Working papers 30589, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
    9. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay & Massimo Mastruzzi, 2006. "Measuring Governance Using Cross-Country Perceptions Data," Chapters, in: Susan Rose-Ackerman (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Thorsten Beck & Luc Laeven, 2006. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 157-186, June.
    11. Fisayo Fagbemi & Geraldine E. Nzeribe & Tolulope T. Osinubi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Interconnections between Governance and Socioeconomic Conditions: Understanding Sub-Saharan African Challenges," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/099, African Governance and Development Institute..
    12. Ashok Chakravarti, 2012. "Institutions, Economic Performance and the Visible Hand," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14751.
    13. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Post-Print hal-01019663, HAL.
    14. Simplice A. Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2018. "Determinants of Property Rights Protection in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(4), pages 1291-1308, December.
    15. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913.
    16. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2007. "Inequality and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 454-465, August.
    17. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2007. "Efficiency of Institutions, Political Stability and Income Dynamics," The IUP Journal of Managerial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-30, February.
    18. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Benoît Prévost, 2004. "Droits et lutte contre la pauvreté : où en sont les Institutions de Bretton Woods ?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 128(4), pages 115-124.
    20. World Bank, 2007. "Bangladesh : Strategy for Sustained Growth, Volume 1. Summary Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 7765, The World Bank Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:noj:journl:v:29:y:2003:p:105-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Halvor Mehlum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nopecjournal.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.