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Elections and Exchange Rate Policy Cycles

  • Marco Bonomo

    (Graduate School of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas)

  • Cristina Terra

    (Graduate School of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas)

This paper presents a theoretical model based on the distributive effects of RER changes that generates RER electoral cycles of the type identified in Latin American countries: more appreciated RER before elections and more depreciated after elections. Typically, a RER depreciation favors exporters and import competing domestic industries, to the detriment of consumers. These RER cycles are generated by imperfect information on policymakers' preferences, which are concealed from voters with the help of an unstable macroeconomic environment. Exchange rate cycles result from the interplay between the electoral power of the nontradable sector and the tradable sector's ability to lobby the government.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0402001.

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Date of creation: 05 Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0402001
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  1. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1997. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 123, Universidad del CEMA.
  2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marco Bonomo & Maria Cristina Terra, 1998. "The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil, 1964-1997," Textos para discussão 395, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  4. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina Trindade, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: an Empirical Assessment," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 53(4), October.
  5. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government and the Benefits of a Constitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 367-88, July.
  6. repec:idb:brikps:77398 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
  8. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Moritz Kraemer, 1997. "Electoral Budget Cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, Causes, and Political Futility," Research Department Publications 4084, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
  11. Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
  12. Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, January.
  13. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  14. Laura Alfaro, 1999. "Why governments implement Temporary Stabilization Programs," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 211-245, November.
  15. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb & Piero Ghezzi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Cycles Around Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-330, November.
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