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Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Demir, Firat

Abstract

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value-added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 - 2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4 - 2.1 percentage points.

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  • Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 24477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24477
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    Cited by:

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    2. Caglayan, Mustafa & Demir, Firat, 2014. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-219.
    3. Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan & Burcu Gürcihan Yüncüler, 2017. "Employment growth and uncertainty: evidence from Turkey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Uses of central balance sheet data offices' information, volume 45, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Yasar, Mahmut & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2020. "International linkages, technology transfer, and the skilled labor wage share: Evidence from plant-level data in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2013. "Does Trade Foster Employment Growth in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Ojonugwa Usman & Osama Mohammed Elsalih, 2018. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and manufacturing employment in Tunisia: Do different categories of firms react similarly?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 137-167, May.
    8. Ricardo Lopez, 2015. "Long Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 86, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    9. José Tomás Peláez S. & Lya Paola Sierra S., 2016. "Does Industrial Employment React to Movements in the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Analysis for Colombia, 2000-2010," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 53(1), pages 39-60, December.
    10. Milena del Rosario Escobar Morillo & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & José Tomás Peláez Soto, 2019. "Efecto del precio del petróleo en el sector industrial de Colombia: Un análisis empírico para los años 2000-2010," Working Papers 41, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.
    11. Dhasmana, Anubha, 2013. "Real Effective Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Indian firms," MPRA Paper 47479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rodolfo Cermeño & Julio Mamani-Palacios, 2013. "Regímenes Monetarios y Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real: El Caso Peruano, 1995-2012," Working papers DTE 565, CIDE, División de Economía.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Volatility; Employment Growth; Manufacturing Firms; South Eastern Europe; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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