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The loan puzzle in Mexico

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  • Colunga-Ramos, Luis Fernando

Abstract

Empirical evidence for advanced economies suggests that following a monetary tightening, commercial and industrial bank loans show a positive “puzzling response”. Since there is no wide evidence for the Mexican case, this paper analyzes the response of bank loans at the sectoral level after a monetary contraction. For this purpose, I estimate a structural VAR model with block exogeneity to identify a monetary shock for a small open economy. The results show evidence of firms’ loan puzzles during 2001-2019 characterized by an inflation-targeting regime in Mexico. Those short-lived loan puzzles are mainly observed in sectors with the lowest delinquency rates during the period of analysis. My finding of the loan puzzle at the aggregate level in a recent sample arises in a closed as well as in an open economy approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Colunga-Ramos, Luis Fernando, 2025. "The loan puzzle in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:6:y:2025:i:1:s2666143824000413
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100160
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank lending channel; Loan puzzle; Monetary policy shocks; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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