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Critical Levels of Debt?

Author

Listed:
  • Lenno Uuskula

    () (Bank of Estonia)

  • Peeter Luikmel

    () (Bank of Estonia)

  • Jana Kask

    ()

Abstract

High credit growth in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) over recent years has sparked interest among many market analysts. Although banking supervision has improved, the continuation of such growth may cause concern about the threat of financial crisis. This paper is written with the aim of analysing the importance of debt factors as a potential cause of financial crises. First, a comparison is conducted of various debt indicators from episodes of crisis in banking across European countries since the 1970s. Second, a probit analysis is used to measure the probability of a crisis. Based on this analysis, it can be claimed that any direct link between debt indicators and financial crises is weak. However, there is some evidence that once the crisis occurs, greater indebtedness lengthens the crisis and raises costs in terms of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenno Uuskula & Peeter Luikmel & Jana Kask, 2005. "Critical Levels of Debt?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-03
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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2005/_wp_305.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Adam Honig, 2006. "Is there a link between dollarization and banking crises?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 1123-1135.
    5. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
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    8. R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martti Randveer & Lenno Uuskula & Liina Kulu, 2012. "The impact of private debt on economic growth," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 05 Jan 2012.
    2. Danny Pitzel & Lenno Uusküla, 2007. "The Effect of Financial Depth on Monetary Transmission," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 63-73, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; indebtedness indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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