Critical Levels of Debt?
High credit growth in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) over recent years has sparked interest among many market analysts. Although banking supervision has improved, the continuation of such growth may cause concern about the threat of financial crisis. This paper is written with the aim of analysing the importance of debt factors as a potential cause of financial crises. First, a comparison is conducted of various debt indicators from episodes of crisis in banking across European countries since the 1970s. Second, a probit analysis is used to measure the probability of a crisis. Based on this analysis, it can be claimed that any direct link between debt indicators and financial crises is weak. However, there is some evidence that once the crisis occurs, greater indebtedness lengthens the crisis and raises costs in terms of GDP.
|Date of creation:||10 Oct 2005|
|Date of revision:||10 Oct 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996.
"The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context,"
Research Department Publications
4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994.
"The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality,"
NBER Working Papers
4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Adam Honig, 2006. "Is there a link between dollarization and banking crises?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 1123-1135.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1984.
"External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
1336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
- Enrica Detragiache & Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt, 1999.
"Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility; A Multivariate Logit Approach,"
IMF Working Papers
99/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
- Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Peeter Luikmel to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.