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Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries

We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence, we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12077.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12077.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12077
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  1. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Marc Quintyn & David S. Hoelscher, 2003. "Managing Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 224, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  4. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
  5. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  8. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  9. Caprio, Gerard & D’Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2014. "Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 114-129.
  10. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 05/96, International Monetary Fund.
  11. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse H & Philippon, Thomas & Richardson, Matthew P, 2012. "Measuring Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Polackova, Hana, 1998. "Contingent government liabilities : a hidden risk for fiscal stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1989, The World Bank.
  15. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2012. "The design of fiscal adjustments," NBER Working Papers 18423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Aliona Cebotari, 2008. "Contingent Liabilities; Issues and Practice," IMF Working Papers 08/245, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
  18. Hana Polackova, 1998. "Contingent Liabilities : A Threat to Fiscal Stability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11522, The World Bank.
  19. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
  20. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521851855 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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