IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/70093.html

The determinants of banking crises: Further evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Peña, Guillermo

Abstract

This paper employs a new dataset of 36 EU and OECD countries for the period 1961–2012 to test the importance of economic inequality in banking crises and to find new determinants of them. We estimated a panel logit model with population-averaged results, capturing the most relevant crisis determinants in the literature. By analyzing the impact of inequality on the risk of a banking crisis, we found a new transmission channel of inequality to a financial recession via deficit and obtained a significant and robust positive impact of inequality on the bank crisis probability. We also found evidence that distance to USA, France and Japan decreases the likelihood of a financial crisis. Finally, and contrary to the theory, we found a new determinant that increases the likelihood of a crisis: the accumulated experience of VAT.

Suggested Citation

  • Peña, Guillermo, 2016. "The determinants of banking crises: Further evidence," MPRA Paper 70093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/70093/1/MPRA_paper_70093.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    2. Anthony B. Atkinson & Salvatore Morelli, 2011. "Economic crises and Inequality," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2011-06, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    4. Salvatore Morelli & Anthony Atkinson, 2015. "Inequality and crises revisited," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(1), pages 31-51, April.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    6. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Burman, Leonard E. & Rohaly, Jeffrey & Rosenberg, Joseph & Lim, Katherine C., 2010. "Catastrophic Budget Failure," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(3), pages 561-583, September.
    8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
    9. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/106, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
    11. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-1.
    12. Claessens, Stijn & Perotti, Enrico, 2007. "Finance and inequality: Channels and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 748-773, December.
    13. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    14. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Peña, 2017. "Money, Lending and Banking Crises," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(4), pages 444-458, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    4. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    5. Matovnikov Mikhail, 2003. "The ups and downs of banking system in transition," EERC Working Paper Series 99-244e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    6. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    7. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.
    8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Guillaume Roussellet, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of systemic banks: the case of EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(3), pages 436-467, June.
    9. Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2019. "Taming financial development to reduce crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    11. D. Fernández-Arias & M. López-Martín & T. Montero-Romero & F. Martínez-Estudillo & F. Fernández-Navarro, 2018. "Financial Soundness Prediction Using a Multi-classification Model: Evidence from Current Financial Crisis in OECD Banks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 275-297, June.
    12. repec:jaf:journl:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. repec:jaf:journl:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    17. Mikhail Stolbov, 2015. "Anatomy of international banking crises at the onset of the Great Recession," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 553-569, October.
    18. Oliver Denk & Boris Cournède, 2015. "Finance and income inequality in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1224, OECD Publishing.
    19. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    20. Amira Dridi & Mohamed El Ghourabi & Mohamed Limam, 2012. "On monitoring financial stress index with extreme value theory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 329-339, March.
    21. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    22. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.