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How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?

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  • Jonathan Kearns
  • Mike Major
  • David Norman

Abstract

Household indebtedness has increased substantially in Australia. We consider how significant a risk this debt poses. Our results suggest that banks appear resilient to a severe downturn, thanks to moderate loan‐to‐valuation ratios on residential mortgages and generally sound lending criteria. Household debt seems to pose a bigger risk to consumption, since a large but plausible decrease in asset prices could precipitate a substantial decrease in consumption. Moreover, the increase in indebtedness over the past decade has slightly increased the potential decline in consumption. However, the distribution of debt across households appears to slightly mitigate these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:54:y:2021:i:3:p:313-330
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12422
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Brassil, 2022. "The Consequences of Low Interest Rates for the Australian Banking Sector," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-04, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    2. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Missed Payments, Renegotiations, and Household Consumption," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 20(1), pages 31-50.
    3. Ferdi Botha & John P. New & Sonja C. New & David C. Ribar & Nicolás Salamanca, 2021. "Implications of COVID-19 labour market shocks for inequality in financial wellbeing," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 655-689, April.
    4. Nicholas Garvin & Samuel Kurian & Mike Major & David Norman, 2022. "Macrofinancial Stress Testing on Australian Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Martin Cesnak, 2023. "Decomposition of retail loan growth," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    7. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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