IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2015-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Losses at Australian Banks: 1980–2013

Author

Listed:
  • David Rodgers

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Credit risk – the risk that borrowers will not repay their loans – is one of the main risks that financial intermediaries face, and has been the underlying driver of most systemic banking crises in advanced economies over recent decades. This paper explores the ex post credit risk experience – the 'credit loss' experience – of the Australian banking system. It does so using a newly compiled dataset covering bank-level credit losses over 1980 to 2013. The Australian credit loss experience is dominated by two episodes: the very large losses around the early 1990s recession and the losses during and after the global financial crisis. The available data indicate the above-average losses during both periods were on lending to businesses. Credit losses on housing loans during and after the global financial crisis were minimal in Australia. Consistent with this, an econometric panel-data model that properly accounts for portfolio composition indicates that conditions in the business sector, rather than those in the household sector, drove credit losses in Australia during the period studied. The data also indicate that the very worst credit loss outcomes – including those that led to the failure of several state government-owned banks in the early 1990s – were driven by poor lending standards.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rodgers, 2015. "Credit Losses at Australian Banks: 1980–2013," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/pdf/rdp2015-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 988-1012, September.
    3. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 22.
    5. Bryan Fitz-Gibbon & Marianne Gizycki, 2001. "A History of Last-resort Lending and Other Support for Troubled Financial Institutions in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Ric Battellino & Nola McMillan, 1989. "Changes in the Behaviour of Banks and Their Implications for Financial Aggregates," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8904, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    9. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    10. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    11. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    12. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    13. Brian Gray, 1998. "Credit risk in the Australian banking sector," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 61-70.
    14. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    15. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    16. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    17. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    19. Luci Ellis & Chris Naughtin, 2010. "Commercial Property and Financial Stability - An International Perspective," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 25-30, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Brassil, 2022. "The Consequences of Low Interest Rates for the Australian Banking Sector," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-04, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    2. Nicholas Garvin & Samuel Kurian & Mike Major & David Norman, 2022. "Macrofinancial Stress Testing on Australian Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Christina Bui, 2018. "Bank Regulation and Financial Stability," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2018, March.
    4. Rose Kenney & Gianni La Cava & David Rodgers, 2016. "Why Do Companies Fail?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Bakhtiari, Sasan, 2021. "Government financial assistance as catalyst for private financing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 59-78.
    6. Bui, Christina & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "The value of bank capital buffers in maintaining financial system resilience," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 23-40.
    7. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    8. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    2. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Antonio Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Simon Stevenson, 2019. "Residential Property Loans and Bank Performance during Property Price Booms: Evidence from Europe," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 247-295, May.
    4. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2019. "Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 325-340, January.
    5. Farrukh Shahzad & Zeeshan Fareed & Bushra Zulfiqar & Umme Habiba & Muhammad Ikram, 2019. "Does abnormal lending behavior increase bank riskiness? Evidence from Turkey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Muhammad Kashif & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Khurram Iftikhar, 2016. "Loan growth and bank solvency: evidence from the Pakistani banking sector," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    8. Salvador Climent-Serrano & Elisabeth Bustos-Contell & Gregorio Labatut-Serer, 2019. "Differential Effect on the Determinants of the Late Payments According to the Economic Cycle," Journal of Business Administration Research, Journal of Business Administration Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 14-28, April.
    9. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    10. Vogiazas, Sophocles & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2014. "‘Putting The Horse Before The Cart’: A Pre-Crisis Panel Data Investigation Of Greek Bank’S Credit Growth," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    11. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    12. Avignone, Giuseppe & Altunbas, Yener & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio, 2021. "Centralised or decentralised banking supervision? Evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Dang, Van Dan & Dang, Van Cuong, 2020. "The conditioning role of performance on the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy: Evidence from a multiple-tool regime," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Cicchiello, Antonella Francesca & Cotugno, Matteo & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2022. "Do capital buffers matter? Evidence from the stocks and flows of nonperforming loans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Bolt, Wilko & de Haan, Leo & Hoeberichts, Marco & van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Swank, Job, 2012. "Bank profitability during recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2552-2564.
    16. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Sitorus, Djauhari & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "Abnormal loan growth, credit information sharing and systemic risk in Asian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1208-1218.
    17. Ardit Gjeçi & Matej Marinč & Vasja Rant, 2023. "Non-performing loans and bank lending behaviour," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, March.
    18. Moscone, Francesco & Tosetti, Elisa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2014. "Real estate market and financial stability in US metropolitan areas: A dynamic model with spatial effects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-146.
    19. Suren Pakhchanyan & Jörg Prokop & Gor Sahakyan, 2018. "Drivers of Bank Solvency, Risk Provisioning and Profitability in the Armenian Banking System," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3), pages 307-332, December.
    20. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; credit losses; lending standards;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.