IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bis/bisqtr/1712f.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household debt: recent developments and challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Zabai

Abstract

The responsiveness of aggregate expenditure to shocks depends on the level and interest rate sensitivity (duration) of household debt, as well as on the liquidity of the assets it finances. Household-level spending adjustments are more likely to be amplified if debt is concentrated among households with limited access to credit or with less scope for self-insurance. The way in which household indebtedness affects the sensitivity of aggregate expenditure matters for both macroeconomic and financial stability. Financial institutions can suffer balance sheet distress from both direct and indirect exposure to the household sector. From a macroeconomic stability viewpoint, monetary transmission is the key issue. In a high-debt economy, interest rate hikes could be more contractionary than cuts are expansionary. These considerations point to a complementarity between current macroprudential and future monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Zabai, 2017. "Household debt: recent developments and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1712f
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1712f.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1712f.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    2. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    3. Mathias Drehmann & Anamaria Illes & Mikael Juselius & Marjorie Santos, 2015. "How much income is used for debt payments? A new database for debt service ratios," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    5. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    7. Marianna Kudlyak & Andra Ghent, 2010. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Theory and Evidence from U.S. States," 2010 Meeting Papers 33, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    9. Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza & Jean Louis Arcand, 2015. "Too Much Finance or Statistical Illusion: A Comment," IHEID Working Papers 12-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    12. Aditya Aladangady, 2014. "Homeowner Balance Sheets and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2015. "Household debt and spending in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 554, Bank of England.
    14. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The real effects of household debt in the short and long run," BIS Working Papers 607, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Matthew Read & Chris Stewart & Gianni La Cava, 2014. "Mortgage-related Financial Difficulties: Evidence from Australian Micro-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    18. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    20. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dagher, Jihad & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, 2017. "Housing finance and real-estate booms: A cross-country perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Riedl, 2019. "Household debt in CESEE economies: a joint look at macro- and micro-level data," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 6-28.
    2. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    3. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    4. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Missed Payments, Renegotiations, and Household Consumption," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 20(1), pages 31-50.
    5. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    6. Youngna Choi, 2022. "Economic Stimulus and Financial Instability: Recent Case of the U.S. Household," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, June.
    7. Levina, Iren & Sturrock, Robert & Varadi, Alexandra & Wallis, Gavin, 2019. "Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt," Bank of England working papers 808, Bank of England.
    8. Emma Leong, 2022. "Regulating Borrower Hardship in Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong: Payment Holidays During COVID-19 and Beyond," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 411-433, September.
    9. Kwon, Yujin & Park, Sung Y., 2023. "Modeling an early warning system for household debt risk in Korea: A simple deep learning approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Samaratunge, Ramanie & Kumara, Ajantha Sisira & Abeysekera, Lakmal, 2020. "Breaking the Perverse Health-debt Cycle in Sri Lanka: Policy Options," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 728-745.
    11. Mr. Adrian Alter & Elizabeth M. Mahoney, 2020. "Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/042, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Massimo Coletta & Riccardo De Bonis & Stefano Piermattei, 2019. "Household Debt in OECD Countries: The Role of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Factors," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 1185-1217, June.
    13. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2019. "Financialization and demand regimes in advanced economies," Working Papers PKWP1911, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Michelle Koketso Kereeditse & Mubanga Mpundu, 2021. "Analysis of Household Debt in South Africa Pre- and Post-Low-Quality Asset Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 114-121.
    16. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Nawazish Mirza & Bushra Naqvi & Birjees Rahat, 0. "Covid-19 and asset management in EU: a preliminary assessment of performance and investment styles," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-11.
    17. Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James A. & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2019. "Mandated superannuation contributions and the structure of the financial sector in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 859-881.
    18. Grzegorz Wałęga & Agnieszka Wałęga, 2021. "Over-indebted Households in Poland: Classification Tree Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 561-584, January.
    19. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Nawazish Mirza & Bushra Naqvi & Birjees Rahat, 2020. "Covid-19 and asset management in EU: a preliminary assessment of performance and investment styles," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 281-291, July.
    20. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    21. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_012 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tzamourani, Panagiota, 2021. "The interest rate exposure of euro area households," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    5. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2015. "Managing price and financial stability objectives - what can we learn from the Asia-Pacific region?," BIS Working Papers 533, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Cumming, Fergus, 2018. "Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment," Bank of England working papers 773, Bank of England.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    11. V. Coudert & J. Idier, 2016. "An Early Warning System for Macro-prudential Policy in France," Working papers 609, Banque de France.
    12. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Piotr Bańbuła & Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 381-403, December.
    15. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bruno De Backer & Hans Dewachter & Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2016. "Credit gaps in Belgium : identification, characteristics and lessons for macroprudential policy," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 14(1), pages 153-170, June.
    18. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Unger, Robert, 2018. "Revisiting the finance and growth nexus: A deeper look at sectors and instruments," Discussion Papers 55/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Hodula, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2022. "The effect of structural risks on financial downturns," ESRB Working Paper Series 138, European Systemic Risk Board.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1712f. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.