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The real effects of household debt in the short and long run

Author

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  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Madhusudan Mohanty
  • Ilhyock Shim

Abstract

Household debt levels relative to GDP have risen rapidly in many countries over the past decade. We investigate the macroeconomic impact of such increases by employing a novel estimation technique proposed by Chudik et al (2016), which tackles the problem of endogeneity present in traditional regressions. Using data on 54 economies over 1990-2015, we show that household debt boosts consumption and GDP growth in the short run, mostly within one year. By contrast, a 1 percentage point increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio tends to lower growth in the long run by 0.1 percentage point. Our results suggest that the negative long-run effects on consumption tend to intensify as the household debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60%. For GDP growth, that intensification seems to occur when the ratio exceeds 80%. Finally, we find that the degree of legal protection of creditors is able to account for the cross-country variation in the long-run impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The real effects of household debt in the short and long run," BIS Working Papers 607, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "The role of household debt heterogeneity on consumption: Evidence from Japanese household data," BIS Working Papers 736, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    5. Kim, Youngil, 2019. "Risks of Short-termism in Macro-prudential Policy Making: The Case of Household Debt in Korea," KDI Policy Forum 272, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    6. Fiona Price & Benjamin Beckers & Gianni La Cava, 2019. "The Effect of Mortgage Debt on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Household-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Massimo Coletta & Riccardo De Bonis & Stefano Piermattei, 2019. "Household Debt in OECD Countries: The Role of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Factors," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 1185-1217, June.
    8. Giordano, Claire & Marinucci, Marco & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The macro determinants of firms' and households' investment: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-133.
    9. Enisse Kharroubi & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2017. "Consumption-led expansions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Debt Service: The Painful Legacy of Credit Booms," 2017 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Anna Zabai, 2017. "Household debt: recent developments and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    12. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    13. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service : The painful legacy of credit booms," Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
    14. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "Credit composition and the severity of post-crisis recessions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 52-66.
    15. Narayan, Laxmi, 2017. "Growth of Public Debt in Haryana – Dynamism or Misplaced Priorities," MPRA Paper 79431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2017.

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