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Accounting for debt service : The painful legacy of credit booms

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  • Drehmann, Mathias
  • Juselius, Mikael
  • Korinek, Anton

Abstract

When taking on new debt, borrowers commit to a pre-specified path of future debt service. This implies a predictable lag between credit booms and peaks in debt service which, in a panel of household debt in 17 countries, is four years on average. The lag is driven by two key features of the data: (i) new borrowing is strongly auto-correlated and (ii) debt contracts are long term. The delayed increase in debt service following an impulse to new borrowing largely explains why credit booms are associated with lower future output growth and higher probability of crisis. This provides a systematic transmission channel whereby credit expansions can have adverse long-lasting real effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service : The painful legacy of credit booms," Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, "undated". "The Credit Risk of Chinese Households – A Micro-Level Assessment," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2018/3, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    2. Joseph E Stiglitz, 2018. "Where modern macroeconomics went wrong," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 70-106.
    3. Funke, Michael & Sun, Rongrong & Zhu, Linxu, 2018. "The credit risk of Chinese households : A micro-level assessment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," NBER Working Papers 24322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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