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Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment

Author

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  • Cumming, Fergus

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the local impact of monetary policy through the cash-flow channel during the Crisis by combining novel micro datasets with near-universal coverage of UK mortgages and employment. I estimate that a reduction in mortgage payments equivalent to 1% of household income led to around a 5 percentage point increase in employment growth in non-tradable businesses the following year. But the spatial distribution of mortgage and labour market structures resulted in significant heterogeneity of this effect across the country. Taken at face value, the estimates suggest that the overall effect of accommodative monetary policy on total employment growth in 2010 varied by around 1.5 percentage points across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cumming, Fergus, 2018. "Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment," Bank of England working papers 773, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0773
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2018/mortgages-cash-flow-shocks-and-local-employment.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bahaj, Saleem A. & Foulis, Angus & Pinter, Gabor, 2017. "Home values and firm behaviour," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86151, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Aron, Janine & Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John N. & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Working Papers 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:6:p:2104-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cloyne, James & Ferreira, Clodomiro & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    6. Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Uluc, Arzu, 2017. "A tiger by the tail: estimating the UK mortgage market vulnerabilities from loan-level data," Bank of England working papers 703, Bank of England.
    7. repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:6:p:2333-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    9. James Cloyne & Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik Kleven, 2019. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2104-2136, June.
    10. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2015. "Household debt and spending in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 554, Bank of England.
    11. Bunn, Philip & Pugh, Alice & Yeates, Chris, 2018. "The distributional impact of monetary policy easing in the UK between 2008 and 2014," Bank of England working papers 720, Bank of England.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    13. Elsa Fornero & Chiara Monticone & Serena Trucchi, 2011. "The effect of financial literacy on mortgage choices," CeRP Working Papers 121, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    14. Stephan Luck & Thomas Zimmermann, 2018. "Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    15. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2017. "How does monetary policy pass-through affect mortgage default? Evidence from the Irish mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgages; interest rates; monetary policy; employment;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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