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The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach

Author

Listed:
  • James Cloyne
  • Kilian Huber
  • Ethan Ilzetzki
  • Henrik Kleven

Abstract

We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the UK and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing, but the responsiveness is smaller than recent US estimates. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel in two ways: through a multivariate and non-parametric heterogeneity analysis of proxies for collateral and wealth effects, and through a test that exploits interest rate notches that depend on housing collateral.

Suggested Citation

  • James Cloyne & Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik Kleven, 2017. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 23861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    2. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Majlesi, Kaveh, 2018. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Working Paper Series 1198, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Li, Jieying & Zhang, Xin, 2017. "House Prices, Home Equity, and Personal Debt Composition," Working Paper Series 343, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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