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Tightening belts to buy a home: Consumption responses to rising housing prices in urban China

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  • Waxman, Andrew
  • Liang, Yuanning
  • Li, Shanjun
  • Barwick, Panle Jia
  • Zhao, Meng

Abstract

This paper measures the impact of housing price changes on household consumption at the city level using the universe of credit and debit card transactions in China from 2011 to 2013. In sharp contrast to the literature on the US housing market, our analysis shows a large and negative housing price elasticity of consumption: a 10% increase in housing prices would lead to a 9% reduction in non-housing spending. We argue that the negative elasticity is driven by the combination of a strong investment incentive in housing and heavy borrowing constraints faced by households. This finding is corroborated by the fact that households increase their savings as housing prices increase. Our analysis suggests that the negative impact of housing price increases on consumption was an important factor behind the low growth rate in household consumption relative to the growth of disposal income during the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Waxman, Andrew & Liang, Yuanning & Li, Shanjun & Barwick, Panle Jia & Zhao, Meng, 2020. "Tightening belts to buy a home: Consumption responses to rising housing prices in urban China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:115:y:2020:i:c:s0094119019300671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2019.103190
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    2. Jingwen Tan & Shixi Kang, 2021. "Urban Housing Prices and Migration's Fertility Intentions: Based on the 2018 China Migrants' Dynamic Survey," Papers 2112.07273, arXiv.org.
    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Yiping Huang & Zhenhua Li & Han Qiu & Shu Chen, 2023. "Data versus Collateral," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 369-398.
    4. Chi-Young Choi & Soojin Jo, 2020. "How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities," Globalization Institute Working Papers 398, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Xiaoqin Sun & Yuhai Su & Honglei Liu & Chengyou Li, 2022. "The Impact of House Price on Urban Household Consumption: Micro Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Huazhu Zheng & Jiao Qian & Guihuan Liu & Yongjiao Wu & Claudio O. Delang & Hongming He, 2023. "Housing prices and household consumption: a threshold effect model analysis in central and western China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Sujata Saha, 2023. "Impact of House Price Changes on Durable and Non-Durable Consumption in the United States," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 73-93.
    8. Dong Cheng, 2021. "Housing boom and non-housing consumption: evidence from urban households in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3271-3313, December.
    9. Mei, Yingdan & Gao, Li & Zhang, Wendong & Yang, Feng-An, 2021. "Do homeowners benefit when coal-fired power plants switch to natural gas? Evidence from Beijing, China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Xiaokuai Shao & Yujin Cao & Yangchuan Teng & Jidong Chen & Liutang Gong, 2022. "The Consumption‐Stimulating Effect of Public Rental Housing in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(1), pages 106-135, January.
    11. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    12. Zheng, Xian & Chen, Xingtao & Yuan, Ziqing, 2021. "Exploring the spatial spillover effect of home purchase restrictions on residential land prices based on the difference-in-differences approach: Evidence from 195 Chinese cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Li, Cheng & Zhang, Ying, 2021. "How does housing wealth affect household consumption? Evidence from macro-data with special implications for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Wu, Xuepin & Ma, Yongjun, 2023. "Research on the comparison effect of urban residents' consumption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Xu, Yuanwei & Wang, Feicheng, 2022. "The health consequence of rising housing prices in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 114-137.
    16. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Housing price; Savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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