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The effect of house prices on household borrowing: a new approach

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  • Cloyne, James
  • Huber, Kilian
  • Ilzetzki, Ethan
  • Kleven, Henrik

Abstract

We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from the idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel through a multivariate and nonparametric heterogeneity analysis of proxies for collateral and wealth effects.

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  • Cloyne, James & Huber, Kilian & Ilzetzki, Ethan & Kleven, Henrik, 2019. "The effect of house prices on household borrowing: a new approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101065, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101065
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    1. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Jieying & Zhang, Xin, 2017. "House Prices, Home Equity, and Personal Debt Composition," Working Paper Series 343, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Staff Reports 924, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Montalvo, José G. & Piolatto, Amedeo & Raya, Josep, 2020. "Transaction-tax evasion in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Harald Hau & Difei Ouyang, 2019. "Local Capital Scarcity and Small Firm Growth: Evidence from Real Estate Booms in China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7928, CESifo.
    6. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    7. Brett A. Mccully & Karen M. Pence & Daniel J. Vine, 2019. "How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1403-1426, August.
    8. Adam M. Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," NBER Working Papers 24729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Arnould, Guillaume & Guin, Benjamin & Ongena, Steven & Siciliani, Paolo, 2020. "(When) do banks react to anticipated capital reliefs?," Bank of England working papers 889, Bank of England.
    10. Guin, Benjamin & Korhonen, Perttu, 2020. "Does energy efficiency predict mortgage performance?," Bank of England working papers 852, Bank of England.
    11. Benetton, Matteo & Bracke, Philippe & Cocco, João F & Garbarino, Nicola, 2019. "Housing consumption and investment:evidence from shared equity mortgages," Bank of England working papers 790, Bank of England.
    12. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Kneer, Christiane & Raabe, Alexander, 2019. "Tracking foreign capital: the effect of capital inflows on bank lending in the UK," Bank of England working papers 804, Bank of England.
    14. Kavan Kucko & Kevin Rinz & Benjamin Solow, 2017. "Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch," CARRA Working Papers 2017-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2020. "High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather," Bank of England working papers 856, Bank of England.
    16. Bahadir, Berrak & De, Kuhelika & Lastrapes, William D., 2020. "Household debt, consumption and inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Fergus Cumming, 2019. "Mortgage Cash-flows and Employment," Discussion Papers 1922, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Hashmat Khan & Jean-François Rouillard & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Investment," Cahiers de recherche 20-15, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. Cumming, Fergus, 2018. "Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment," Bank of England working papers 773, Bank of England.
    20. Cumming, Fergus & Dettling, Lisa, 2019. "Monetary policy and birth rates: the effect of mortgage rate pass-through on fertility," Bank of England working papers 835, Bank of England.
    21. Essi Eerola, 2019. "Macroprudential Measures and Taxation in the Housing Markets," EconPol Policy Brief 17, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    22. Chen, Xin & Qin, Yaohua & Xiao, He & Zhang, Yifei, 2019. "Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China," MPRA Paper 95375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Jagjit S Chadha & Richard Barwell, 2019. "Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Occasional Papers 58, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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