IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/101065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of house prices on household borrowing: a new approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cloyne, James
  • Huber, Kilian
  • Ilzetzki, Ethan
  • Kleven, Henrik

Abstract

We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from the idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel through a multivariate and nonparametric heterogeneity analysis of proxies for collateral and wealth effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloyne, James & Huber, Kilian & Ilzetzki, Ethan & Kleven, Henrik, 2019. "The effect of house prices on household borrowing: a new approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101065, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101065/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orazio Attanasio & Andrew Leicester & Matthew Wakefield, 2011. "Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth? The Coincident Cycles Of House Prices And Consumption In The Uk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 399-435, June.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    3. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    4. Anthony A. Defusco, 2018. "Homeowner Borrowing and Housing Collateral: New Evidence from Expiring Price Controls," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 523-573, April.
    5. Joe Vavra & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "House Prices and Retail Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    7. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    8. Johannes Stroebel & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1391-1436.
    9. Davidoff, Thomas, 2016. "Supply Constraints Are Not Valid Instrumental Variables for Home Prices Because They Are Correlated With Many Demand Factors," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 177-206, December.
    10. David Berger & Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Joseph Vavra, 2018. "House Prices and Consumer Spending," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1502-1542.
    11. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Michael Carlos Best & James Cloyne & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, 2015. "Interest rates, debt and intertemporal allocation: evidence from notched mortgage contracts in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 543, Bank of England.
    14. Thomas Davidoff, 2013. "Supply Elasticity and the Housing Cycle of the 2000s," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 793-813, December.
    15. Itzhak Ben-David, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Inflated Home Prices during the Real Estate Boom," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 55-87, July.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    2. David Berger & Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Joseph Vavra, 2018. "House Prices and Consumer Spending," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1502-1542.
    3. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    4. Kerr, Sari Pekkala & Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "House prices, home equity and entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. census micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-119.
    5. Waxman, Andrew & Liang, Yuanning & Li, Shanjun & Barwick, Panle Jia & Zhao, Meng, 2020. "Tightening belts to buy a home: Consumption responses to rising housing prices in urban China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2025. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(7), pages 2267-2305, July.
    7. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The Residential Collateral Channel," Discussion Papers 1607, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jun 2016.
    8. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2017. "Home values and firm behaviour," Bank of England working papers 679, Bank of England.
    9. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2020. "Home Values and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2225-2270, July.
    10. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    11. Atalay, Kadir & Edwards, Rebecca, 2022. "House prices, housing wealth and financial well-being," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    14. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 244-268, April.
    15. Hanming Fang & Long Wang & Yang Yang, 2022. "Housing Wealth and Online Consumer Behavior:Evidence from Xiong'an New Area in China," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Mian, A. & Sufi, A., 2016. "Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 255-296, Elsevier.
    17. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," CEPR Discussion Papers 13195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Karolis Bielskis, 2024. "Homeownership status and its effect for housing wealth - consumption channel in Europe," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 668-684, September.
    19. Kessel, Dany & Tyrefors, Björn & Vestman, Roine, 2018. "The Housing Wealth Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 361, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    20. Belinda Tracey & Neeltje Van Horen, 2021. "The consumption response to borrowing constraints in the mortgage market," Bank of England working papers 919, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.