IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v44y2012i7p1401-1426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage Choice as a Natural Field Experiment on Choice under Risk

Author

Listed:
  • PHILOMENA M. BACON
  • PETER G. MOFFATT

Abstract

Microdata from the UK Survey of Mortgage Lenders is used to model borrowers' choices between variable and fixed rate mortgages. The data is treated as a large-scale "natural experiment" on risky choice, with the choice of a fixed rate corresponding to the "safe choice" in a more conventional experimental setting. The choice is assumed to depend partly on risk attitude, and partly on expectations of future movements in interest rates. Approximately 280,000 choices, made by borrowers between 1992 and 2001, appear in the sample. The ordered probit model is used for estimation, while taking account of a number of econometric issues including missing counterfactuals, selectivity, and endogeneity. Explanatory variables are divided into three groups: mortgage price variables; interest rate expectations; and borrower characteristics. A large number of strong effects are found, including: fixing is more likely when agents expect interest rates to increase; the presence of female borrowers increases the propensity to fix; older borrowers are less likely to fix; high-income borrowers are less likely to fix, particularly so if income is "self-certified"; those with higher loan-to-value ratios are less likely to fix. These findings amount to new insights in the modelling of choice under risk.Series: University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Philomena M. Bacon & Peter G. Moffatt, 2012. "Mortgage Choice as a Natural Field Experiment on Choice under Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1401-1426, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:7:p:1401-1426
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00537.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00537.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Masclet & Youenn Loheac & Laurent Denant-Boemont & Nathalie Colombier, 2004. "Group and individual risk preferences : a lottery-choice experiment," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06063, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Sep 2006.
    2. Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 1994. "Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 453-477.
    3. Thierry Post & Martijn J. van den Assem & Guido Baltussen & Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 38-71, March.
    4. Masclet, David & Colombier, Nathalie & Denant-Boemont, Laurent & Lohéac, Youenn, 2009. "Group and individual risk preferences: A lottery-choice experiment with self-employed and salaried workers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 470-484, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," MEA discussion paper series 201406, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2017. "How does monetary policy pass-through affect mortgage default? Evidence from the Irish mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. repec:mea:meawpa:14283 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ksa:szemle:1724 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling," Working Papers 2016-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Michael Richter, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects on Financial Cycles in a Monetary Union with Diverging Country Preferences for Variable- and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 7, pages 19-36, February.
    7. Bouyon, Sylvain, 2017. "Recent Trends and Developments in European Mortgage Markets," ECRI Papers 12596, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:7:p:1401-1426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.