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Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander N. Bogin

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William D. Larson

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

We make two contributions to the study of house price index and mortgage credit modeling accuracy. First, we assess the predictive power of house price indices calculated at different levels of geographic aggregation. Lower levels of aggregation offer superior fit when appreciation rates vary substantially across submarkets and the indices are based on a sufficient number of transactions. Second, we estimate a competing options credit model using 15 years of mortgage performance data in the United States. Model accuracy is highest when using indices at a city or lower level of aggregation to construct current loan-to-value ratios. Fit is weaker when using state or national price indices. Overall, this research highlights the benefits of using more localized house price indices when predicting property values and mortgage performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling," Working Papers 2016-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Rebecca Lessem & Sarah Niebler & Carly Urban, 2023. "Do house prices affect campaign contributions?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 629-660, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; loan-to-value; mortgage performance; credit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

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