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Loss severities on residential real estate debt during the Great Recession

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  • Andersson, Fredrik
  • Mayock, Tom

Abstract

This study develops estimates of expected loss severities on mortgage exposures using data from Florida during the Great Recession. This paper marks the first attempt at addressing sample selectivity in the context of loss models. We also construct measures of home equity that are more accurate than those employed in previous studies. We find that failing to address sample selection and the use of noisy equity measures in loss models can bias loss estimates significantly. We also find significantly higher loss severities and a greater sensitivity of loss severity to equity than what previous studies report.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Fredrik & Mayock, Tom, 2014. "Loss severities on residential real estate debt during the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:266-284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. McCollum, Meagan N. & Lee, Hong & Pace, R. Kelley, 2015. "Deleveraging and mortgage curtailment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 60-75.
    2. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    3. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling," Working Papers 2016-010, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    4. Head, Allen & Sun, Hongfei & Zhou, Chenggang, 2023. "Indebted sellers, liquidity and mortgage standards," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Scott Robertson, 2020. "Mortgage Contracts and Underwater Default," Papers 2005.03554, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    6. Shi, Xiaojun & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2017. "A limit distribution of credit portfolio losses with low default probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 156-167.
    7. Glennon, Dennis & Kiefer, Hua & Mayock, Tom, 2018. "Measurement error in residential property valuation: An application of forecast combination," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    8. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    9. Head, Allen & Sun, Hongfei & Zhou, Chenggang, 2016. "Default, Mortgage Standards and Housing Liquidity," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274685, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    10. Keith Ihlanfeldt & Tom Mayock, 2019. "Affordable Housing and the Socioeconomic Integration of Elementary Schools," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 567-595, May.
    11. Andreas Fuster & Paul Goldsmith‐Pinkham & Tarun Ramadorai & Ansgar Walther, 2022. "Predictably Unequal? The Effects of Machine Learning on Credit Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 5-47, February.
    12. Hung Xuan Do & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2020. "Liquidity Constraints, Home Equity and Residential Mortgage Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 208-246, August.
    13. Arnab Biswas & Hamilton Fout & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2023. "Mortgage Losses under Alternative Property Disposition Approaches: Deed-in-Lieu, Short Sales, and Foreclosure Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 603-635, April.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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