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Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander N. Bogin

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William D. Larson

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

We construct the first large-scale panel of annual house price indices for cities, counties, 3-digit ZIP codes, and 5-digit ZIP codes in the United States from 1975 through 2015 using source data with nearly 100 million transactions. Appreciation rates decrease with distance from the central business district (CBD) in large cities, suggesting an overall increase in the desirability of housing units in CBD locations and a general steepening of the house price gradient. Real house prices are more likely to be non-stationary near the CBD than in the suburbs, a finding consistent with a higher elasticity of housing supply near the edge of the city. Sustained real price increases and high price volatility near the centers of large cities suggest a lower supply elasticity in these locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts," FHFA Staff Working Papers 16-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:16-01
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12233
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregation bias; house prices; standard urban model; land leverage; transportation costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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