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The Price of Residential Land for Counties, ZIP Codes, and Census Tracts inthe United States

Author

Listed:
  • Morris A. Davis

    () (Department of Finance and Economics, Rutgers Business School, Rutgers University)

  • William D. Larson

    () (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Stephen D. Oliner

    () (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research)

  • Jessica Shui

    () (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

We use data on the appraised land value from a data set of more than 16 million appraisals to produce annual estimates of the average price of land used in single-family housing. We generate a balanced panel of data on land value per acre for more than 900 counties, 8,000 ZIP codes, and 11,000 census tracts in the United States between 2012 and 2017, covering 85% of the population and 83% of all single-family homes. Based on the predictions of a calibrated optimal model of teardowns, we limit our sample of appraised land values for homes with an e ective age of no more than 10 years. We standardize these land values to a per-acre basis, and then spatially interpolate to the universe of single-family homes using Kriging. Our analysis produces three main ndings for our sample: land prices in most areas increased between 2012 and 2017; land prices tended to rise faster than house prices; and land appreciated most rapidly in areas with relatively high density of structures. The land prices we generate are intended to aid researchers in Urban and Regional Economics and policy-makers monitoring the health of the nation's single-family housing market and are available for free download at https://www.fhfa.gov/papers/wp1901.aspx.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris A. Davis & William D. Larson & Stephen D. Oliner & Jessica Shui, 2019. "The Price of Residential Land for Counties, ZIP Codes, and Census Tracts inthe United States," FHFA Staff Working Papers 19-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:19-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:tpr:restat:v:100:y:2018:i:3:p:454-466 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alexander Bogin & William Doerner & William Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-398, June.
    3. Davidoff, Thomas, 2016. "Supply Constraints Are Not Valid Instrumental Variables for Home Prices Because They Are Correlated With Many Demand Factors," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 177-206, December.
    4. repec:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Basu, Sabyasachi & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1998. "Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    land prices; land leverage; price gradient; standard urban model; price dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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