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Residential land values in the Washington, DC metro area: New insights from big data

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  • Davis, Morris A.
  • Oliner, Stephen D.
  • Pinto, Edward J.
  • Bokka, Sankar

Abstract

We use a new property-level data set and an innovative methodology to estimate the price of land from 2000 to 2013 for nearly the universe of detached single-family homes in the Washington, DC metro area and to characterize the boom-bust cycle in land and house prices at a fine geography. The results show that land prices were more volatile than house prices everywhere, but especially so in the areas where land was inexpensive in 2000. We demonstrate that the change in the land share of house value during the boom was a significant predictor of the decline in house prices during the bust, highlighting the value of focusing on land in assessing house-price risk.

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  • Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Pinto, Edward J. & Bokka, Sankar, 2017. "Residential land values in the Washington, DC metro area: New insights from big data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 224-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Oliner, Stephen D. & Peter, Tobias J. & Pinto, Edward J., 2020. "The Wealth Building Home Loan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Leon Stirk-Wang & Paul Thorsnes, 2017. "Geographic variation in intra-city house price appreciation over the boom-bust cycle: evidence from Auckland, NZ," Working Papers 1714, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    4. Can Li & Yu Meng & Yingkui Li & Jingfeng Ge & Chaoran Zhao, 2019. "Inter-Metropolitan Land-Price Characteristics and Patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-29, August.
    5. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Sapci, Ayse, 2022. "Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Wentland, Scott A. & Ancona, Zachary H. & Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Boyd, James & Hass, Julie L. & Gindelsky, Marina & Moulton, Jeremy G., 2020. "Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Residential land prices for the Irish property market: An initial examination," Papers WP778, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Gabriel S. Lee & Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Agglomeration Spillover Effects in German Land and House Prices at the City and County Levels," Working Papers 207, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    10. Larson, William D. & Shui, Jessica, 2022. "Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    11. Braun, Stefanie & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "The prices of residential land in German counties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    13. Albouy, David & Shin, Minchul, 2022. "A statistical learning approach to land valuation: Optimizing the use of external information," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    15. Alexander Bogin & William Doerner & William Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-398, June.
    16. Yi Huang & Geoffrey Hewings, 2021. "More Reliable Land Price Index: Is There a Slope Effect?," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, March.
    17. Liu, Crocker H. & Nowak, Adam & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2016. "Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 55-72.
    18. Kenneth G. Stewart, 2022. "How important are land values in house price growth? Evidence from Canadian cities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 249-271, February.
    19. Rawan Shabbar & Anemone Kasasbeh & Mohamed M. Ahmed, 2021. "Charging Station Allocation for Electric Vehicle Network Using Stochastic Modeling and Grey Wolf Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Gedal, Michael & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2018. "Valuing urban land: Comparing the use of teardown and vacant land sales," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 190-203.
    21. Rolheiser, Lyndsey & van Dijk, Dorinth & van de Minne, Alex, 2020. "Housing vintage and price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    22. Clapp, John M. & Lindenthal, Thies, 2022. "Urban land valuation with bundled good and land residual assumptions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    23. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.
    24. Kumhof, Michael & Tideman, Nicolaus & Hudson, Michael & Goodhart, Charles, 2021. "Post-Corona Balanced-Budget Super-Stimulus: The Case for Shifting Taxes onto Land," CEPR Discussion Papers 16652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Indaco, Agustín, 2020. "From twitter to GDP: Estimating economic activity from social media," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land; Housing; House prices; Housing boom and bust; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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