IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v66y2017icp224-246.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Residential land values in the Washington, DC metro area: New insights from big data

Author

Listed:
  • Davis, Morris A.
  • Oliner, Stephen D.
  • Pinto, Edward J.
  • Bokka, Sankar

Abstract

We use a new property-level data set and an innovative methodology to estimate the price of land from 2000 to 2013 for nearly the universe of detached single-family homes in the Washington, DC metro area and to characterize the boom-bust cycle in land and house prices at a fine geography. The results show that land prices were more volatile than house prices everywhere, but especially so in the areas where land was inexpensive in 2000. We demonstrate that the change in the land share of house value during the boom was a significant predictor of the decline in house prices during the bust, highlighting the value of focusing on land in assessing house-price risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Pinto, Edward J. & Bokka, Sankar, 2017. "Residential land values in the Washington, DC metro area: New insights from big data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 224-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046216301508
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
    3. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    4. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Housing Supply," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 295-318, May.
    5. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    7. Dye, Richard F. & McMillen, Daniel P., 2007. "Teardowns and land values in the Chicago metropolitan area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 45-63, January.
    8. Clapp, John M. & Salavei, Katsiaryna, 2010. "Hedonic pricing with redevelopment options: A new approach to estimating depreciation effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 362-377, May.
    9. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2009. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278, June.
    10. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    11. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    12. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    13. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. W. Erwin Diewert & Jan de Haan & Rens Hendriks, 2015. "Hedonic Regressions and the Decomposition of a House Price Index into Land and Structure Components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 106-126, February.
    15. David Bedoll & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr, 2008. "The price of land in the New York metropolitan area," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Apr).
    16. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    17. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    18. C. Sirmans & Barrett Slade, 2012. "National Transaction-based Land Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 829-845, November.
    19. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
    20. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    21. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    22. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
    23. Thorsnes, Paul & McMillen, Daniel P, 1998. "Land Value and Parcel Size: A Semiparametric Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 233-244, November.
    24. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2006. "Construction Costs And The Supply Of Housing Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 661-680, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Oliner, Stephen D. & Peter, Tobias J. & Pinto, Edward J., 2020. "The Wealth Building Home Loan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Leon Stirk-Wang & Paul Thorsnes, 2017. "Geographic variation in intra-city house price appreciation over the boom-bust cycle: evidence from Auckland, NZ," Working Papers 1714, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    4. Can Li & Yu Meng & Yingkui Li & Jingfeng Ge & Chaoran Zhao, 2019. "Inter-Metropolitan Land-Price Characteristics and Patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-29, August.
    5. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Sapci, Ayse, 2022. "Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Wentland, Scott A. & Ancona, Zachary H. & Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Boyd, James & Hass, Julie L. & Gindelsky, Marina & Moulton, Jeremy G., 2020. "Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Residential land prices for the Irish property market: An initial examination," Papers WP778, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Gabriel S. Lee & Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Agglomeration Spillover Effects in German Land and House Prices at the City and County Levels," Working Papers 207, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    10. Larson, William D. & Shui, Jessica, 2022. "Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    11. Braun, Stefanie & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "The prices of residential land in German counties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    13. Albouy, David & Shin, Minchul, 2022. "A statistical learning approach to land valuation: Optimizing the use of external information," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    15. Alexander Bogin & William Doerner & William Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-398, June.
    16. Yi Huang & Geoffrey Hewings, 2021. "More Reliable Land Price Index: Is There a Slope Effect?," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, March.
    17. Liu, Crocker H. & Nowak, Adam & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2016. "Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 55-72.
    18. Kenneth G. Stewart, 2022. "How important are land values in house price growth? Evidence from Canadian cities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 249-271, February.
    19. Rawan Shabbar & Anemone Kasasbeh & Mohamed M. Ahmed, 2021. "Charging Station Allocation for Electric Vehicle Network Using Stochastic Modeling and Grey Wolf Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Gedal, Michael & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2018. "Valuing urban land: Comparing the use of teardown and vacant land sales," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 190-203.
    21. Rolheiser, Lyndsey & van Dijk, Dorinth & van de Minne, Alex, 2020. "Housing vintage and price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    22. Clapp, John M. & Lindenthal, Thies, 2022. "Urban land valuation with bundled good and land residual assumptions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    23. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.
    24. Kumhof, Michael & Tideman, Nicolaus & Hudson, Michael & Goodhart, Charles, 2021. "Post-Corona Balanced-Budget Super-Stimulus: The Case for Shifting Taxes onto Land," CEPR Discussion Papers 16652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Indaco, Agustín, 2020. "From twitter to GDP: Estimating economic activity from social media," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    2. Edward J. Pinto & Stephen D. Oliner & Morris A. Davis, 2014. "House prices and land prices under the microscope: a property-level analysis for the Washington, DC area," AEI Economics Working Papers 415524, American Enterprise Institute.
    3. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2015. "Local Polynomial Regressions versus OLS for Generating Location Value Estimates: Which is More Efficient in Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," Working Papers 2015-14, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & John M. Clapp, 2017. "Local Polynomial Regressions versus OLS for Generating Location Value Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 365-385, April.
    5. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.
    6. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Braun, Stefanie & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "The prices of residential land in German counties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    9. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    10. Roland Füss & Jan A. Koller & Alois Weigand, 2021. "Determining Land Values from Residential Rents," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
    11. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    12. Clapp, John M. & Lindenthal, Thies, 2022. "Urban land valuation with bundled good and land residual assumptions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    13. Larson, William D. & Shui, Jessica, 2022. "Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Gedal, Michael & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2018. "Valuing urban land: Comparing the use of teardown and vacant land sales," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 190-203.
    15. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
    16. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    17. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    18. Longhofer, Stanley D. & Redfearn, Christian L., 2022. "Estimating land values using residential sales data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    19. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    20. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    21. Wentland, Scott A. & Ancona, Zachary H. & Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Boyd, James & Hass, Julie L. & Gindelsky, Marina & Moulton, Jeremy G., 2020. "Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land; Housing; House prices; Housing boom and bust; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.