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Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing

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  • Lu Han

Abstract

Standard theory predicts a positive relationship between risk and return, yet recent data show that housing returns vary positively with risk in some markets but negatively in others. This paper rationalizes these cross-market differences in the risk-return relationship for housing, and in so doing, explains the puzzling negative relationship. The paper shows that when the current house provides a hedge against the risk associated with the future housing consumption, households are willing to accept a lower return to compensate for risk, thus weakening the positive risk-return relationship. Further, in markets with less elastic housing supply and a growing population, hedging incentives can be sufficiently strong to make the relationship negative. The empirical analysis confirms these predictions, suggesting that hedging incentives, housing supply, and urban growth are indeed central to understanding the risk-return relationship for housing. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Han, 2013. "Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 877-928.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:4:p:877-928
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhs181
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    Cited by:

    1. Rashmi Soni, 2017. "Designing a Portfolio Based On Risk and Return of Various Asset Classes," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(2), pages 142-149, February.
    2. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    3. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    4. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2018. "Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 91-110.
    5. Kyriaki Begiazi & Paraskevi Katsiampa, 2019. "Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 290-309, February.
    6. Peter Chinloy & William D. Larson, 2017. "The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market," FHFA Staff Working Papers 17-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    7. Tabner, Isaac T., 2016. "Buying versus renting – Determinants of the net present value of home ownership for individual households," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 233-246.
    8. Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2018. "Covariance Risk and the Ripple Effect in the UK Regional Housing Market," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 1-13, August.
    9. Turnbull, Geoffrey K. & van der Vlist, Arno J., 2022. "The price of ignorance: Foreclosures, uninformed buyers and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    11. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    12. Jianhua Gang & Liang Peng & Jinfan Zhang, 2021. "Are Pricier Houses Less Risky? Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 662-677, November.
    13. Lydia Cheung & Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Philip Vermeulen, 2023. "Evidence on the Determinants and Variation of Idiosyncratic Risk in Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 23/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    14. Robert Webb & Duncan Watson & Steven Cook, 2021. "Price adjustment in the London housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 113-130, January.
    15. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    16. Jaqueson Galimberti & Lydia Cheung & Philip Vermeulen, 2022. "Evidence on the variation of idiosyncratic risk in house price appreciation," Working Papers 2022-05, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    17. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling," Working Papers 2016-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    18. P. S. Morawakage & G. Earl & B. Liu & E. Roca & A. Omura, 2023. "Housing Risk and Returns in Submarkets with Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 695-734, November.
    19. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    20. Dominic Crowley & Shuyun May Li, 2016. "An NPV Analysis of Buying versus Renting for Prospective Australian First Home Buyers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 606-630, December.
    21. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    22. Tsang, Albert & Yang, Nan & Zheng, Lingyi, 2022. "Cross-listings, antitakeover defenses, and the insulation hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 259-276.
    23. Shulin Shen & Yiyi Zhao & Jindong Pang, 2024. "Local Housing Market Sentiments and Returns: Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 488-522, April.
    24. Huh, Sungjun & Kim, Insu, 2021. "Real estate and relative risk aversion with generalized recursive preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    25. Steven F. Venti, 2015. "Comment on "House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder"," NBER Chapters, in: Insights in the Economics of Aging, pages 119-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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