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Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Fergus Cumming
  • Lisa Dettling

Abstract

This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households’ eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:91:y:2024:i:1:p:229-258.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdad034
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    Cited by:

    1. Cumming, Fergus, 2022. "Mortgage cash-flows and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Sep 2025.
    3. De Cao, Elisabetta & McCormick, Barry & Nicodemo, Catia, 2022. "Does unemployment worsen babies’ health? A tale of siblings, maternal behaviour, and selection," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Cumming, Fergus & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "House prices, the distribution of household debt and the refinancing channel of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Lee, Heebum & Lee, Sung Kwan, 2022. "Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Bernardus van Doornik & Dimas Fazio & Tarun Ramadorai & Janis Skrastins, 2024. "Housing and Fertility," Working Papers Series 612, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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